If you missed the low on Tuesday you may be getting another chance. If we get 3 or 4 more bearish days we will be around 10.5k and the Fib level 0.618. Did you notice the correction came close to 0.618 but never crossed it? It better not fall through the 0.618 otherwise we are headed to 8k.
Normally I'm not this bearish but I did some calculations this evening and something doesn't sit right with me and this crypto "bull run" we are having.
I did a simple screen to see how many bullish cryptos we have. Out of the 3365 cryptos in TV, only 20% of them (665) are above their daily 200 EMA. That's right. 80% of the cryptos are still long term bearish and haven't recovered from the 2018 crash or they are no longer actively traded.
I did the test again this time filtering the # of cryptos with a rating of Buy & Strong Buy. Only 697 cryptos were displayed. This means in the short term only 20% of the cryptos are bullish.
This is not good news. You can't have a bullish crypto market with 80% of the participants bearish.
I reran the EMA200 screen this time including only cryptos with a volume of at least 50k over 90 days. This was to exclude cryptos that are not actively traded. This reduced the bullish cryptos even more, to 17%.
The crypto market is not as healthy as it was in 2017. 80% of the crypto market is under water. I suppose some would say the 2018 crash has culled the market which is good for cryptos. Sure, but 80% of the market is dead weight and that is a high price to pay. It has robbed other more successful cryptos of the money that is needed to fuel this industry. It has also taught us there is a lot of garbage cryptos out there. Maybe as high as 80%!
Over the past 6 months the crypto market has been FOMO'd with Wall Street coming into it to sell BTC to their retail customers. That's all very well and good. But if you take this away (or delay it), how far down will BTC fall? At least 8k in my opinion. Maybe as far down as 6k. I'm not saying this has to happen. As I mentioned before, FOMO is the most powerful energy force in the universe for moving prices. If the FOMO keeps up, perhaps from new players then the BTC price will stay elevated even if some Wall Street players delay their entry into cryptos.
But I feel the market is not nearly as healthy as it was in 2017. If we think it is, then we are just kidding ourselves. 90% of the cryptos probably won't be around 5 years from now. This is a good thing if they can get delisted like stocks can. There is no point keeping hundreds of cryptos on life support just because it is possible. We need some form of garbage collection for the dead cryptos because they are starting to stink the place up. :-)
Normally I'm not this bearish but I did some calculations this evening and something doesn't sit right with me and this crypto "bull run" we are having.
I did a simple screen to see how many bullish cryptos we have. Out of the 3365 cryptos in TV, only 20% of them (665) are above their daily 200 EMA. That's right. 80% of the cryptos are still long term bearish and haven't recovered from the 2018 crash or they are no longer actively traded.
I did the test again this time filtering the # of cryptos with a rating of Buy & Strong Buy. Only 697 cryptos were displayed. This means in the short term only 20% of the cryptos are bullish.
This is not good news. You can't have a bullish crypto market with 80% of the participants bearish.
I reran the EMA200 screen this time including only cryptos with a volume of at least 50k over 90 days. This was to exclude cryptos that are not actively traded. This reduced the bullish cryptos even more, to 17%.
The crypto market is not as healthy as it was in 2017. 80% of the crypto market is under water. I suppose some would say the 2018 crash has culled the market which is good for cryptos. Sure, but 80% of the market is dead weight and that is a high price to pay. It has robbed other more successful cryptos of the money that is needed to fuel this industry. It has also taught us there is a lot of garbage cryptos out there. Maybe as high as 80%!
Over the past 6 months the crypto market has been FOMO'd with Wall Street coming into it to sell BTC to their retail customers. That's all very well and good. But if you take this away (or delay it), how far down will BTC fall? At least 8k in my opinion. Maybe as far down as 6k. I'm not saying this has to happen. As I mentioned before, FOMO is the most powerful energy force in the universe for moving prices. If the FOMO keeps up, perhaps from new players then the BTC price will stay elevated even if some Wall Street players delay their entry into cryptos.
But I feel the market is not nearly as healthy as it was in 2017. If we think it is, then we are just kidding ourselves. 90% of the cryptos probably won't be around 5 years from now. This is a good thing if they can get delisted like stocks can. There is no point keeping hundreds of cryptos on life support just because it is possible. We need some form of garbage collection for the dead cryptos because they are starting to stink the place up. :-)
