BTC has been in a descending triangle since July. All attempts at breaking out to the upside have failed.
Here is what will probably happen:
In the next 1 to 3 months, BTC will break sharply to the downside... where it will run into the ascending 200SMA.
This is where you buy.
If you are too scared to buy a falling market, then you can wait for confirmation on the weekly or monthly chart by waiting for a bullish green candle on either of those time frames... something like a hammer, engulfing pattern, morning star... or any green candle at all if you dont know how to read candle patterns.
If the market does stop at this level and starts making new highs, you can add to your position by buying the pullbacks to the 50SMA.
Well... it didnt take 1 to 3 months to break down!
So now that the 200SMA has been touched, wait for a weekly or monthly bullish candle (hammer , engulfing pattern, morning star, etc).
Here is the thing... if this breakdown is going to be a true failure that catches people off guard, the upside move should be POWERFUL... like once the green candle on the weekly or monthly prints, BTC should move VERY QUICKLY above 10K.... if it does not, then this entire analysis should be suspect. But if it does move into the 10-12K range in a matter of a few days, then the breakdown failure is real... which means that BTC will begin the next leg up.