Hi, this is a more local analysis of the Bitcoin situation.
After the recent falling, many are wondering - what's next? And nobody will tell you what happens next for sure, but I will give my suggestion about the upcoming movement.
Making predictions is an unfortunate business. As you understand, I am engaged in this business. For me, it is about studying the financial markets, behavioral economics, cycles, and other aspects of the market. I'm definitely not a visionary. I analyze the market and share my observations with you. Your best "thank you" is Like and Comment!
Continuation I'm sure 90% of traders will soon see this beautiful Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. People will definitely open the short positions around the resistance line. I want to warn you - the most dangerous time for beginners is the flat period or sideways movement of the market when the instrument moves in a small corridor.
After most of the market participants gain short positions, a short squeeze may occur - this is the liquidation of short positions. In other words, the achievement of stop losses - in this case, the position is closed by market price and, accompanied by green candles.
If this happens - we will see a super bullish formation that will be deceiving. We will possibly make a reversal movement and go to test the level of the previous high-level 20k. It will be accompanied by the new record numbers of the long positions liquidations.
This forecast may not be valid. I see this scenario as one of the most plausible for me.
Do not trade with margin, leverage, observe risk management, best of luck to all, and big profit.
Why 20k, mate ? The theoretical target for such H&S is far lower, according to TA rules.
I understand that's previous top, but i think it does not cope well with the H&S hyphotesis.
Anyway, i'm inclined to think that such a H&S is so obvious that il will deceive most traders.
Literally anybody can see it.
As you wrote a short squeeze will be likely.
Yet i doubt a Long squeeze with target 20k would follow.
Anyway, that's just my 2 cents.
Keep up with your great analysis.
mnw8105
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@ft-73, well not my place to answer but there was no price movement between 20k-30k in the past. i can not see any resistance or support line, so i think if 30k level breaks it is possible 22,5k or 19,8k will be the line. but my main reason that we can see 20k is because of possible elliot wave 12345.
It starts with ATH price on 14.04 and 3rd leg is on last wednesday as hits 30k. 4th leg could be between 40k-44,9k and once was a support line (44,9k) could become a resistance line. In this scenario 5th leg will be somewhere between 18k-22k.
Basicly 64k to 47k, then to 59,5k and then to 30k. Fib levels are consistent with this wawe and if 44,9 can not be broken we can see 5th leg to 20k. of course this theory needs much more verification but so far it goes on track
@ft-73, Theoretical target for this massive H&S is below $0 which is obviously impossible. So I doubt this pattern will play out. It may however go down to 20k as part of the ongoing correction.
bluedog360
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@ft-73, You might consider adding a dampening factor to your HS target to account for the changing market dynamics (institutions are more resolute in their positions than retail and less likely to flipflop).
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