The_black_swan

Don't FOMO, bears will come back!

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi everyone,

After the sharp drop of last year, I haven't had a scenario in mind for what followed, so I have not published anything since November. And that's good because I didn't expect such a strong reversal to 5k. I have now a scenario in mind for the next few months and the main reason for that is that we have now a range defined by the local bottom at 3200$ and the very strong resistance around 5800$. We should stay in this range for a bit. So I'm bearish from 5800$.

On a fundamental perspective, we are slowly getting more bullish with all the work being done behind the scene. The bear market did not stop people from building up the space, and that's bullish long term. Another long term bullish sign is the strong volume of the last few weeks, this market is not dying at all.

On a technical perspective, the 200 Weekly MA that I extended (in white) or the volume well around 3k will likely support the price for a bit, like in December. The 5.8k volume well is a strong resistance, and I am very bearish from there. I give only 20% for the market to just pop to 6-7k so easily, at the first attempt.

So overall, bullish long term fundamentals and bearish short term technicals.
So my strategy from here would be: don't FOMO right now, we are likely at a local top, however start accumulating when there is a significant drop.
But keep cash for prices as low as 1-2k, to be safe.

Cheers everyone!

Comments

If there is something to learn then that is: The market is not rational. The price will most likely be where you do not expect it to be, rather than where you expect it to be.
Personally, I currently tend to think that your lower blue line $2990 is about right where Bitcoin is heading to by the end of the year. Maybe not. We will see. The probability is about 50% ;-)
+1 Reply
I expect a drop, but I think your target is too low.
+1 Reply
I remember a guy on redit or shitcointalk who was going to shit on him when the bitcoin dump under 1K, so long that this guy does not have the cigar pinched at the end of the lips I would not be a buyer;)
+1 Reply
How many times I have seen this kinds of analysis right?? not even one.. this time i am contrarian. I think this will be only slight pull back with big green candle.
+1 Reply
@sushrest, You might be right, I totally understand your feeling. Also there is a lots of total volume across all the exchanges and this is bullish. But I want to stay cold headed, and the rational part of my brain is saying "don't FOMO, bears will come back". Cheers.
+5 Reply
Long time no see.
+1 Reply
Thankyou :)
+1 Reply
I am also short on Bitcoin right now, we will see how that goes.

You can see it here:
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