After the sharp drop of last year, I haven't had a scenario in mind for what followed, so I have not published anything since November. And that's good because I didn't expect such a strong reversal to 5k. I have now a scenario in mind for the next few months and the main reason for that is that we have now a range defined by the local bottom at 3200$ and the very strong resistance around 5800$. We should stay in this range for a bit. So I'm from 5800$.
On a fundamental perspective, we are slowly getting more with all the work being done behind the scene. The bear market did not stop people from building up the space, and that's long term. Another long term sign is the strong of the last few weeks, this market is not dying at all.
On a technical perspective, the 200 Weekly MA that I extended (in white) or the well around 3k will likely support the price for a bit, like in December. The 5.8k well is a strong resistance, and I am very from there. I give only 20% for the market to just pop to 6-7k so easily, at the first attempt.
So overall, long term fundamentals and short term technicals.
So my strategy from here would be: don't FOMO right now, we are likely at a local top, however start accumulating when there is a significant drop .
But keep cash for prices as low as 1-2k, to be safe.
Personally, I currently tend to think that your lower blue line $2990 is about right where Bitcoin is heading to by the end of the year. Maybe not. We will see. The probability is about 50% ;-)