Last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE (BEARISH SIGNAL) which managed to close above the Tenkan-Sen @ 41'279.

The ongoing candle, firstly broke, yesterday, the TENKAN-SEN and went lower towards the bottom of the weekly clouds which act, for the time being as support..

In order, in this weekly time frame to neutralise the selling pressure, the BTC needs, at least to recover above the former support (Tenkan-Sen) @ 41'279; this would be the first step of a potential recovery.

A failure to do it on a weekly closing basis, would keep the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds (@ 39'895) ahead of the next significant support @ 36'425 (former primary support trend line and monthly KIJUN-SEN.


The cross-under 41'279, as expected and mentioned in my last analysis (see related ideas) triggered a downside acceleration in breaking in its way the psychological 40'000 support level in making an intraday low @ 39'218.

A natural pullback took place, attempting to recover above the former support (daily thin clouds), currently 39'900 and 40'100

RSI @ 37.70

LAGGING LINE attempting to stay above both KS and TS.



A successful breakout and a daily closing at least above 40'000 would neutralise "temporary" the ongoing downside risk calling for lower level; nevertheless, such kind of price action should be confirmed by an upside move continuation at least above the middle (40'841) of the yesterday's long black candle (bearish), which if seen, would trigger a PIERCING LINE, (1st bullish signal), A much bullish signal would be given by a daily closing above both the Kijun-Sen @ 41'279 and above the yesterday's opening level @ 42'159, which if achieved would trigger a BULLISH ENGULFING . a pattern which should be seen more powerful than the Piercing line previously mentioned.


If the ongoing pullback attempt fails and do not achieve to recover above the levels above mentioned in the bullish scenario, then the focus will switch firstly towards the secondary support trend line (minor support) around 39'000 ahead of the more important support of 36'425 being firstly the monthly KIJUN-SEN and secondly the primary support trend line.


Once again the CLOUDS and LAGGING LINE will give the answer !!!

4 HOURS (H4)

Currently far below the clouds and also below TS, KS and MBB

In this 4 hours time frame, it looks like any recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in an established ongoing downtrend and any rally should be considered as a better selling opportunity.

It is not a surprise to see that the H4 TENKAN-SEN @ 41'334, coincides roughly with the Daily TS @ 41'279 previously mentioned as an importance new resistance to break in order to neutralise the ongoing downside move; therefore, this resistance area corroborate the daily view and as long as the BTC does not achieve to recover and hold at least above 41'279, the picture will remains bearish.

1 HOUR (H1)

Currently above TS and facing the Mid Bollinger Band resistance @ 40'251 ahead of KS @ 40'793

No RSI bullish divergences detected yet in this H1 time frame which mean, for the time being corrective move and not trend reversal yet !!!!

Last but not least the hourly clouds resistance are @ 42'613 (twist).

IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki


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