JamesBrown
Long

Midterm Prediction on Bitcoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
88 3 3
Things could get really interesting from here for the bulls, IMO.

Price has set in 3 new highs out of the 200 SMA bollinger band squeeze breakout (black line is the 200 SMA ; yellow shaded area represents the 2 SD             bollies for the 200 SMA ). Price has historically targeted the 200 SMA 30% channel envelope (the grey shaded area), hitting on 5 previous BB squeeze breakouts out of the six that have occurred since the all time high ( ATH             ) - 4 of them within weeks of the breakout; 1 of them within 2 months. This is the tightest squeeze since the ATH             and also the longest consolidation period before the breakout.

The "projection pitchfork" that I drew in from the yearly low (as the anchor point) through the biggest down leg in price since that low (p1 and p2 pivots ), sets my longer term expectations in price. Price is currently riding along the first lower warning line (-1.00) to that pitchfork and I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped down another half of a warning line to a whole warning line before starting its journey to validate the pitchfork with a median line touch in the future.

The regression trend channel (+- 2 standard deviation channel) uses the same range of prices thas was used for the anchor and two pivots of the pitchfork and projects forward from that price sample. I expect it to act as a retrace pivot after price tests the pitchfork median line . I foresee the uptrend continuing after a test of the regression mean from the upside (probably at a price above 350).

From there the pitchfork ML may be tested again and perhaps even busted to the upside. There's a possibility of a "bump and run" pattern that lasts many months to years, much like what happened with gold             after consolidating for many years off of the $800 retracement before exploding to over $1900.
Comment: The pitchfork and regression line are still definitely in play here.

Hagopian line was "busted" recently, technically invalidating the ptichfork, but, just like old trendlines from years ago, price may still react to that median line should bitcoin experience another exponential move.
I forgot to mention that this is the tightest 200 SMA bollinger band squeeze since the one that sent prices from under $130 to over $1100. There have been six squeezes of the bands since that squeeze, and not one of them have came close to tightening as much as the latest, nor were their consolidation periods as long (goes without saying).
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Also, I said that I drew the pitchfork from the historical low, which obviously isn't accurate. What I meant to say is from the "lowest low since the historical high", or the "yearly low".
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Don't forget this "projection pitchfork" as we may be re-visiting that some months/ years down the line.

Also, keep your eyes on that regression trend median line, we could be visiting that in as little as a few weeks, IMO.
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