IvanLabrie

BTCUSD: Bulls in danger

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
In the chart we can see what looks like a truncated fifth wave which would be completing a corrective structure.
The rgmov top seems to indicate the advance in BTCUSD             is done, and the stronger momentum in the selloff makes we weary of holding long positions open.

If BTCUSD             falls under the 217.5 mark before the 9th, then I'd suggest going short or taking profits from longs, since it's possible that we see an impulsive selloff that might take BTCUSD             into fresh lows under 150.

If this is the case, then the top in gold             , (which also formed a truncated fifth wave, which everyone tries to take as a 3rd wave peak) would be similar to the top in the Bitcoin bubble rally, making this correction potentially very lengthy, and violent. I have no way of estimating the next move, but if the impulse down is confirmed, or even a sharp correction, I'd get out and/or short it.

There's a valid time at mode uptrend in the weekly with plenty of time left, so, the confirmation for the EW suspicions would be crossing below the uptrend mode before completing the uptrend target. But that would be late if long or if holding BTC .

Good luck, I'll update the chart with my findings.
Cheers,
Ivan.
Trade closed: target reached
Interestingly enough, I think the terminal was correctly labeled.
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CelsusAlonso IvanLabrie
still crashing 'till 150?
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IvanLabrie PRO CelsusAlonso
Possibly. For now, the wave count looks viable.
We have to see if the levels below hold.
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Today we might see the bearish action resume in btcusd, looking for now. I covered my short at 3% profit.
Will update the chart later.
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crash
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IvanLabrie PRO jdfreshman
Yes, my worst fears have become real...at least talking BTCUSD.
Darn...this might fall really, really hard.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
I'll have to short with part of my funds to hedge it:

snapshot
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BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
Ivan the 1D RSI is close to oversold soon around 240-247 dont u think we should bounce from there to 272-275 area before more down?

snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
RSI oversold doesn't matter in a wave 3 advance.
Now, I'm not positive of the current wave count but I do think the top was a truncation because of the super sharp decline that followed.

A bounce would happen naturally, but not sure it'll be a reversal or a bounce before more down. For a bounce to occur we need to hit a level of previously accepted fair value, like 236-246, where price spent a lot of time at. Below that, it's a free fall till 150.
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