BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
a year ago
In the chart we can see what looks like a truncated fifth wave which would be completing a corrective structure.
The rgmov top seems to indicate the advance in BTCUSD             is done, and the stronger momentum in the selloff makes we weary of holding long positions open.

If BTCUSD             falls under the 217.5 mark before the 9th, then I'd suggest going short or taking profits from longs, since it's possible that we see an impulsive selloff that might take BTCUSD             into fresh lows under 150.

If this is the case, then the top in gold             , (which also formed a truncated fifth wave, which everyone tries to take as a 3rd wave peak) would be similar to the top in the Bitcoin bubble rally, making this correction potentially very lengthy, and violent. I have no way of estimating the next move, but if the impulse down is confirmed, or even a sharp correction, I'd get out and/or short it.

There's a valid time at mode uptrend in the weekly with plenty of time left, so, the confirmation for the EW suspicions would be crossing below the uptrend mode before completing the uptrend target. But that would be late if long or if holding BTC .

Good luck, I'll update the chart with my findings.
Cheers,
Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: target reached
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To illustrate the fractal similarities between rallies and tops...you can clearly see something in common between each top.
I'd need more historical data for the EW analysis, but it's not so important.
The current juncture calls for a very sharp selloff, if the terminal impulse witha truncated fifth is confirmed.
If it exceeds the time limitation then I'd assume it's some other corrective structure and that Bitcoin can happily chug along, sideways/up or sideways/down.
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meghal.jani PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
You mean 217.5 or 271.5? Is that a typo?
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IvanLabrie PRO meghal.jani
a year ago
Good eye, I was deep into the analysis process, coming out of it to type the description...I'll update and correct it.
271.5, the 'bearish if below' dashed line.
Thanks.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Nevermind, can't edit it after 15 minutes. :/
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yen21 IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thank you Ivan,i really ippreciated your analysis. It seems you re right once again
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Compare to the top in gold:
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Esper
a year ago
Nice chart and analysis, thanks!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Esper
a year ago
Thank you for the comments.
I'll update this chart regularly.
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jdfreshman
a year ago
crash
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IvanLabrie PRO jdfreshman
a year ago
Yes, my worst fears have become real...at least talking BTCUSD.
Darn...this might fall really, really hard.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I'll have to short with part of my funds to hedge it:

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BuyBitcoin.WS IvanLabrie
a year ago
Ivan the 1D RSI is close to oversold soon around 240-247 dont u think we should bounce from there to 272-275 area before more down?

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IvanLabrie PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
RSI oversold doesn't matter in a wave 3 advance.
Now, I'm not positive of the current wave count but I do think the top was a truncation because of the super sharp decline that followed.

A bounce would happen naturally, but not sure it'll be a reversal or a bounce before more down. For a bounce to occur we need to hit a level of previously accepted fair value, like 236-246, where price spent a lot of time at. Below that, it's a free fall till 150.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I placed a short now, stop at 266, entry was 263.452 at btc-e.com.
Target is a retest of the lows or lower than that. Looks like we have 3 waves down and a 4th up, pending 5th.
Now, where does this impulse fit in? I'm not 100% sure, hopefully not the start of a strong bear run!
+1 Reply
stragaw IvanLabrie
a year ago
i'm too. GL
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO stragaw
a year ago
If we manage to retest the low at 252, that's an impressive 5:1 r/r. ;)
Keep in mind the MT4 chart isn't the same as the BTC-e.com one we see here, since that one doesn't include the MT4 transactions...MT4 does include all, mt4 and normal exchange prices.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
I'll cover 75% of the short at 252 and move the stop to break even.
+1 Reply
Today we might see the bearish action resume in btcusd, looking for now. I covered my short at 3% profit.
Will update the chart later.
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CelsusAlonso IvanLabrie
a year ago
still crashing 'till 150?
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IvanLabrie PRO CelsusAlonso
a year ago
Possibly. For now, the wave count looks viable.
We have to see if the levels below hold.
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Interestingly enough, I think the terminal was correctly labeled.
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