TradingView
IvanLabrie
Aug 6, 2015 9:17 PM

BTCUSD: Bulls in danger 

Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBitstamp

Description

In the chart we can see what looks like a truncated fifth wave which would be completing a corrective structure.
The rgmov top seems to indicate the advance in BTCUSD is done, and the stronger momentum in the selloff makes we weary of holding long positions open.

If BTCUSD falls under the 217.5 mark before the 9th, then I'd suggest going short or taking profits from longs, since it's possible that we see an impulsive selloff that might take BTCUSD into fresh lows under 150.

If this is the case, then the top in gold, (which also formed a truncated fifth wave, which everyone tries to take as a 3rd wave peak) would be similar to the top in the Bitcoin bubble rally, making this correction potentially very lengthy, and violent. I have no way of estimating the next move, but if the impulse down is confirmed, or even a sharp correction, I'd get out and/or short it.

There's a valid time at mode uptrend in the weekly with plenty of time left, so, the confirmation for the EW suspicions would be crossing below the uptrend mode before completing the uptrend target. But that would be late if long or if holding BTC.

Good luck, I'll update the chart with my findings.
Cheers,
Ivan.

Trade closed: target reached

Comments
Esper
Nice chart and analysis, thanks!
IvanLabrie
Thank you for the comments.
I'll update this chart regularly.
IvanLabrie
Interestingly enough, I think the terminal was correctly labeled.
IvanLabrie
CelsusAlonso
still crashing 'till 150?
IvanLabrie
Possibly. For now, the wave count looks viable.
We have to see if the levels below hold.
IvanLabrie
Today we might see the bearish action resume in btcusd, looking for now. I covered my short at 3% profit.
Will update the chart later.
jdfreshman
crash
IvanLabrie
Yes, my worst fears have become real...at least talking BTCUSD.
Darn...this might fall really, really hard.
IvanLabrie
I'll have to short with part of my funds to hedge it:

More