In this brief study I will name two conditions which in the past two years never failed to kick-start a new Bull Rally.
** The 1W MA20 **
Since the All Time High ( ATH ) of $19800, Bitcoin used the MA20 (yellow line) on the 1W chart (left chart on the screen) as a benchmark for Bull and Bear Cycle/ Phases. Following the ATH (December 2017), the price broke below the 1W MA20 and closed two straight candles there (early February 2018). This marked the start of the new Bear Cycle and the MA20 was practically used as a until the very bottom. We only had two instances where one 1W candle close occurred above the MA20 (late February and late July 2018), but as I said the indicator is two straight.
As you see after the bottom, once BTC made two straight candle closes above the 1W MA20 (late March 2019), the new and in fact very aggressive Bull Cycle started. That lasted until the June 2019 peak, which gave way to a new two straight candle close below the 1W MA20 (late September 2019) and confirmed this 6 month correction. Now BTC has completed again (late January 2020), which is a strong signal that we are starting a new Bull Rally.
** The 1D Golden Cross **
This formation and indicator is much simpler. During the early 2019 bottom, it was the 1W MA20 break out that kick started the first wave of the new Bull Rally, but what really confirmed it was the Golden Cross on the 1D chart (right chart on your screen). This is when the MA50 (blue line) crosses above the MA200 (orange line). In 2019 that happened in late April (around 1 month after the 1W MA20 indicator) and caused a +170% rise until the June to. This is now the only signal left to confirm the new rally. If the "1 month later" rule is applied then we can expect the Golden Cross in late February.
Will you wait for the 1D Golden Cross to confirm the new rally or is the 1W MA20 break out enough for you to continue buying for this new phase? Let me know in the comments section!
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@TradingShot - have you tried back testing these indicators to, say through 2013, to see if it works for previous Bull & Bear runs?