Reversal might be tricky

Morning everybody,

So, our last setup works more or less properly and now it seems that BTC shows nice upward action. Still, we have some reasons to suggest that downside action is not over yet and warn you about few scenarios that might appear here.
At the same time whatever we get it - it doesn't hurt our long-term scenario which is bullish with 74.5K target in medium term. So, all that we tell here is mostly tactical and for daily/intraday basis.

So, the first level to watch is 44.9K where market is going first. It stands at the same strong resistance area that has triggered downside drop last time. Major daily AB-CD target at 38K still has not been completed yet. It makes us think, that butterfly has big chances to appear here. It could make technical picture perfect. First is - become a background for reversal. Second - finalize daily target.

Next level that also makes sense to watch is 46.3K. Although it stands above resistance, but it is the potential reversal point of "222" Sell pattern that we could get. Not necessary that BTC starts dropping to new lows out there, but some downside pullback has big chances to happen.

Thus, we think that for long entry it would be better to wait either reaching of major target of 38-38.5K, or upside breakout above 46.5K, while bears could consider current setup with 44.9K level and butterfly. It is very comfortable as it lets to place very tight stops - just above recent top of 45.25K.

As you can see, despite that we have upward bounce - there are a lot of tricky moments around it.