Short-term: Bearish Medium term: Neutral Long-term: Bullish
My prediction is that we might continue with the downward trend for another ~30 days, bottoming out around 450.
It's also entirely possible that we're seeing a faster crash/recovery cycle than in the past. This latest Gox crash may be the last dip needed to clear-out the post-bubble/Chinese New Year negative sentiment.
Comments
nick.stoneman.5
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Hi! Nice analysis which is working out well. Kudos. I particularly like your "Short-term: Bearish. Medium term: Neutral. Long-term: Bullish," Puts it in perspective. My tired old eyes also particularly like your nice clear in-chart annotations! I'd encourage everyone doing charts to use largish fonts to help us old'uns! LOL. With regard to ChsaDos's question "Unless we have another "china craze" how do you expect it to grow like it did?" I'll say 2 things: unforseen circumstances and watch this vid: youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI Many thanks for the chart and best wishes, Nick
johnrfraser
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I agree. If we buy in at 450 though, what are the chances of further sentiment change to towards 200? I see resistance at 500ish...if we break that it could go lower than 450 could it not?
bitcorati
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I was around and in bitcoin long before the March/April 13 bubble and I can tell you the fundamentals for Bitcoin today are much better now - even in light of recent negative events and shocks. Thus, I expect to see a shorter consolidation period from the late November high compared to what we saw in the last "bubble". Last year Bitcoin peaked in early April, hit a low in early July and was back to its old high (266) by early November (6 month consolidation and rebound). After hitting a high of around 1100/1200 in late November I would expect to see a 2 to 3 months down and 2 to 3 months back up, so 4 to 6 months total round trip consolidation down and back up to 1100/1200 range. That means the down trend is almost over and we should see it rise back to old highs over the next 2 to 3 months. Then the next bubble will occur that could take us into the 5,000 - 10,000 range by July 2014!
bitcorati
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Sorry, last years correction and rebound lasted 7 months (not 6). This years should be compressed (between 4 - 6 months) because bitcoin is in a much better position now than it was last year and there is FAR more infrastructure in place, new users, and new merchants using and accepting bitcoin and an increasing rate.
ChsaDos
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Optimistic fella aren't you! 3K+!!! within 4 months!?
phrak
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Same time-frame as the April-December pricing.
If I hadn't graphed it, I would have conservatively said 3K by the 3rd quarter 2014.
ChsaDos
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Unless we have another "china craze" how do you expect it to grow like it did? By all accounts that phase has/is ending and we are now seeing the healthy correction.
phrak
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Fair point. I don't know and it could be anything from favourable news or integrations with major retailers. Who knows?
I wasn't around at the time - what drove the April bubble?