Bitcoin did a very similar move in 2013 where it lost 84% from its All-Time High (~1150 USD) and fell back to ~180 USD (~6.4x lost it value!). After a period of sideways, which was with some big swings (180 to 310 range) and plenty of volatility to trade, it broke out and entered this massive Bullrun till end 2017.
If you look at the RSI, we are in a very similar situation, most people have indeed lost faith in BTC, capitulation is quite present and we are going slowly through the despair phase now. If I were a long-term investor this is really the kind of conditions I would want to look for. Additionally, the global stock markets have been doing bad and people are more eager to hoard cash/gold and maybe something digital that is easily transferred around the globe? Bitcoin and other altcoins are a good alternative to physical store of value since they are easily sent and use online.
What do you think the cryptomarket cap will do? Do you think we are in capitulation or in any other phase? Leave a comment below and feel free to share any thoughts!
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Bitcoin in very interesting BUY area, found this fractal and the ghost pattern fits very nicely so far!
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BTC just broke through resistance in 1 big candle! This is what we want to see, strength will most likely continue and form a inverse head and shoulders!
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Bitcoin face resistance but is now in a position to attempt a right shoulder, the price is around the same level as a left shoulder which is okay. Going below the head with this ascending neckline is bad and would hint in a further downtrend.
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BTC making a nice recovery here! Looking more and more like a right shoulder! Waiting for it to push above current resistance for clear upward continuation.
Actually, wait. I got my numbers wrong. Here's a better one (I'm just picking January of each year for simplicity)....
Jan 2014 - High 1............Jan 2015 - Bottom 1............Jan 2016 - 50% of high 1..............Jan 2017 - Equal to high 1.............Jan 2018 - About 15 times high 1
Jan 2018 - High 2............Jan 2019 - Bottom 2............Jan 2020 - 50% of high 2 (10K).......Jan 2021 - Equal to high 2.............Jan 2022 - About 15 times high 2 ($270,000)
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Using the prior pattern as a basis, we just might hit the following levels...
First pattern:
Jan 2014 - High 1 Jan 2015 - Bottom 1 Jan 2016 - 50% of high 1 Jan 2017 - Equal to high 1 Jan 2018 - About 8 times high 1
Jan 2018 - High 2 Jan 2019 - Bottom 2 Jan 2020 - 50% of high 2 (10k) Jan 2021 - Equal to high 2 Jan 2022 - About 8 times high 2 ($160,000)
I think it is very possible. Remember that in the absence of anything fundamental (bitcoin does not have fundamentals like stocks or commodities do), in the absence of fundamentals, Bitcoin has only technicals that it can trade on. This is why technical analysis is so accurate with Bitcoin. It is almost 100% trading on technicals. So patterns should repeat rather consistently. Like in the graph above. So the targets above just might actually make sense.
so basically I can take a break until September and nothing would change in btc… agree with the chart seems logical.... many are still calling for 500? not sure if that will happen...
Yes quite in line with my thoughts too Notice we bounced nicely on the 200WMA just like 2015 and we are around -85% correction from ATH just like in 2015... I believe $3200 could be the bottom. The price will retest the 200WMA multiple times in the next few months, only that will tell if we are going lower or not.
That's similar to what I see playing out with a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic over the course of 2019 before liftoff with a Wyckoff Spring/Up Thrust the end of 2019.
You will see that posted in the charts I've posted in comments section of this publication:
However, there's "Potential Bear Trap/Shakeout Before Automatic Rally in Phase A."
Jan 2014 - High 1............Jan 2015 - Bottom 1............Jan 2016 - 50% of high 1..............Jan 2017 - Equal to high 1.............Jan 2018 - About 15 times high 1
Jan 2018 - High 2............Jan 2019 - Bottom 2............Jan 2020 - 50% of high 2 (10K).......Jan 2021 - Equal to high 2.............Jan 2022 - About 15 times high 2 ($270,000)