BTCUSD may fail to retest 6k low before bullish reversal to 12k
Looking at the daily chart we see that at 6000 it was the third low. Assuming a 1-5 impulse wave we should expect an A-C correction wave.
The end of this expected correction wave may end up within wave 4 (~9500-~12000). This aligns with the fact that this was the first time the RSI gave an oversold signal when the price reached 6000.
Looking at the MACD each of the previous two times we had an failed attempt to get over the signal line, retesting the lows each time. This time we also have the RSI signal and the 200MA is acting as support but the 50MA is coming down fast and we may expect another (failed) test of the 6000 low withing the coming weeks.
But first we should expect a test of the 9200-9500 resistance levels in the coming days, the A wave. There is a lot of resistance there and as we go up the volume is dropping. So when we hit these levels the volume should go up signaling heavy resistance and we should go into the B wave to retest the 6000 low.
If we are at the end of the impulse wave it will be a failed test, and we will never reach 6000, perhaps stoping somewhere in the 6800-7200 region. The MACD histogram should stay above the blue line. The C wave of the correction will take us up to 12000 and through the 9200-9500 resistance level.
If we get to close to 6000 we may break this resistance level and go to 5500.
The end of this expected correction wave may end up within wave 4 (~9500-~12000). This aligns with the fact that this was the first time the RSI gave an oversold signal when the price reached 6000.
Looking at the MACD each of the previous two times we had an failed attempt to get over the signal line, retesting the lows each time. This time we also have the RSI signal and the 200MA is acting as support but the 50MA is coming down fast and we may expect another (failed) test of the 6000 low withing the coming weeks.
But first we should expect a test of the 9200-9500 resistance levels in the coming days, the A wave. There is a lot of resistance there and as we go up the volume is dropping. So when we hit these levels the volume should go up signaling heavy resistance and we should go into the B wave to retest the 6000 low.
If we are at the end of the impulse wave it will be a failed test, and we will never reach 6000, perhaps stoping somewhere in the 6800-7200 region. The MACD histogram should stay above the blue line. The C wave of the correction will take us up to 12000 and through the 9200-9500 resistance level.
If we get to close to 6000 we may break this resistance level and go to 5500.
Comment:
An update on how it may play out
Comment:
A small update on targets based on short term patterns.
Looking at the 4hour chart we see that there are two patterns which are about to form. A large H&S pattern and an ascending triangle pattern.
The H&S gives a target at around 11500 which just below a 12k major resistance level. So this could be a target for wave C, which we expect to be in the 9500-1200 region.
The smaller ascending triangle formation gives a target at around 10k, which is over the 9200-9500 resistance level but below a previous support of around 10000-10200, which we expect to turn to resistance.
I expect at 10k to see wave B of the correction wave. The question is how low it will take us. A probable short target is at the right H&S shoulder at 8k. This is higher than the 6800-7200 target i mentioned earlier and stopping there it will reconfirm a strong bullish reversal, which may take us up to 11.5k.
Looking at the 4hour chart we see that there are two patterns which are about to form. A large H&S pattern and an ascending triangle pattern.
The H&S gives a target at around 11500 which just below a 12k major resistance level. So this could be a target for wave C, which we expect to be in the 9500-1200 region.
The smaller ascending triangle formation gives a target at around 10k, which is over the 9200-9500 resistance level but below a previous support of around 10000-10200, which we expect to turn to resistance.
I expect at 10k to see wave B of the correction wave. The question is how low it will take us. A probable short target is at the right H&S shoulder at 8k. This is higher than the 6800-7200 target i mentioned earlier and stopping there it will reconfirm a strong bullish reversal, which may take us up to 11.5k.