BTCUSD (D): Why could the red weeks come?

The resitance was touched for the third time. In the trend channel we have now reached the top. The question arises, where is the journey going? Even further up?

After 85 days up with a plus of 75% a correction is overdue. Or? So how strong will the correction be? I check in at 3.500/3.600 and checked out on Thursday.

Many believe that the Bitcoin still falls below 4000. There are even approaches that see the Bitcoin below 2000. It's all a question of probability.

So how likely is it that Bitcoin will currently lose more than 45 % or 65 % of its value again? Yes, of course, if the market would capitulate, everything is possible. The only thing is that the fundamental data speak against it. Even though Bitfinex has caught the headlines, the best case was the hope of some big players to influence the market. At the same time big brokers like eTrade and Ameritrade have accept now Bitcoin-Trading. And the acceptance of Bitcoin and Alts continues to increase signifactly.

So where does the market correct? (Note: For Bitfinex use higher prices, but Fibo remains the same.)

Scenario 1:
-12% (5300 Fibo 0.786) to the short-term resistance and another bullrun to Fibo 1.274 (6.500)
My opinion:
Probability rather lower

Scenario 2:
-16% (4900) to Fibo 0.618 and another bullrun to Fibo 1.274 (6.500)
My opinion:
Probability well possible. I have a position here.

Scenario 3:
-30% (4000 to 4300) to Fibo 0.236 or 0.382).
My opinion:
That is the wish of many. Probability possible. But I think that the market will not react, as everyone believes and hopes. But be watchfull, everything ist possible.

Scenario 4:
-46% (3100 to 3350) to Fibo 0 and capitulation with further fall.
My opinion:
Rather unlikely. The market is in the fundamentals data to strong at the moment.

So let's see where our next good tranding opportunities are.


Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)

Comment:

nice tribble top. i stay short.

Comment:

we've stayed above ema 50. strong situation. bullrun still possible. be watchfull.

Comment:

target fibo 1.274 (6500). on chart. fibo 1.618 still pos. (7340).