BTCUSD - Weekly workup with notes - VERY BULLISH IMO
I've locked down the multi-year trend line between the touch-back points and it is a very good fit. My expectations for the rest of this week is to trade inside the weekly red candle as before. Then when we start a new week this Sunday evening it is my expectation to start building a green engulfing candle that covers this week as we climb North again away from the trend line. That's a lot of speculation and fortune telling for a Wednesday but that's how I'd like to see this play out. (Similar to the last breakout) I know many are calling for further decline, but my thesis requires that we hold the line and continue North. That's not to say we could not touch it again within the confines of this week's red candle, but by next week we need to start to pull away.
At any rate, this is what I'm watching and this is my hypothesis. Your mileage may vary. :0)
Good Luck!
P.S. Hit the thumbs up if you agree with what you see and/or the follow button to see future updates.
At any rate, this is what I'm watching and this is my hypothesis. Your mileage may vary. :0)
Good Luck!
P.S. Hit the thumbs up if you agree with what you see and/or the follow button to see future updates.
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typo alert! The MA cross was on 6-2-2019 not 6-2-2010. lol Obviously.
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I fixed the typo and added another point of interest. The new support line up top. Notice how it sits on top of a previous peak of the previous decline. As we rise these peaks should turn into support once we break past them.
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From a weekly view down to a 30 minute view the baby blue multi-year trend-line continues to act as support. What would be the ultimate wrecking ball for both the Bulls and Bears? For the Bulls it would be to buy the trend line and put a stop right below it. For the Bears it would be to short it now and put a stop above the trend line. Why? Because if we get a stop hunting spike down another $100 bucks or so it takes out the bull stops on the way down and takes out all the bears on the way back up to new highs. We could still drop to the $7,350 area and it not hurt my weekly chart one bit but it would blow out a lot of stops in both directions. Just saying.
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Looking good so far. If we can put some distance between the current price and the trend-line the stronger the support should become.
On a side note, I've been thinking about what I've seen since the bottom. Everything seems to be accelerating. I don't know for sure, but I am theorizing, that future moves are going to be faster and more condensed. What do I mean? I think the pull backs may be smaller. 10-20% instead of 30-40% and the rips may be faster and higher. Everything that can happen, will happen, but in a more favorable light for Bitcoin and the owners thereof. Why? Bitcoin is no longer a secret. Bitcoin is no longer being bought off of eBay by techno geeks like me. Bitcoin is headline news and all other me-too coins are priced in Bitcoin. The awakening is happening and people KNOW there is a limited supply with a rising demand and they may not be willing to wait for a 40% retrace and risk missing the next double in price, etc. Also the grapevine affect. Like I said, the word it out and more and more people are jumping in with both feet. Under these conditions things can only accelerate. Then there are the black swan events. I believe it is very possible that you could go to bed with Bitcoin at, lets say $8K and wake up and it's 18K. Why? War, China dumping their 2 Trillion Dollars, bank failure event like 2008, etc. The Fed is out of bullets, at some point this big debt turd is going to hit the fan. When it does, ALL THOSE DOLLARS are going to rush into ANYTHING perceived to be a safe haven of value. ANYTHING. What are you going to do then? If the bears are bitching about $7-8K what are they going to say at $17-18K or HIGHER? It could happen, that's why they are called Black Swan events. They are unexpected and when they hit, they hit HARD. You may have heard it said before about other opportunities: "Better to be days, weeks, months, or years early rather than a second late!"
Just some FOMO food for thought. It sounds like FOMO, but I'm totally serious too. That's why I've been in Bitcoin for years, NEVER without at least 50% of my long position in place. I've traded in and out around my core position to scalp here and there but those days are over. The risk of dropping 1-2K does not worry me near as much as waking up to double digit bitcoin overnight. If it never happens, call me a fool if you want, but if it does happen, don't say I never warned you.
And those are my 2 Satoshis on what I think the potential is for Bitcoin.
On a side note, I've been thinking about what I've seen since the bottom. Everything seems to be accelerating. I don't know for sure, but I am theorizing, that future moves are going to be faster and more condensed. What do I mean? I think the pull backs may be smaller. 10-20% instead of 30-40% and the rips may be faster and higher. Everything that can happen, will happen, but in a more favorable light for Bitcoin and the owners thereof. Why? Bitcoin is no longer a secret. Bitcoin is no longer being bought off of eBay by techno geeks like me. Bitcoin is headline news and all other me-too coins are priced in Bitcoin. The awakening is happening and people KNOW there is a limited supply with a rising demand and they may not be willing to wait for a 40% retrace and risk missing the next double in price, etc. Also the grapevine affect. Like I said, the word it out and more and more people are jumping in with both feet. Under these conditions things can only accelerate. Then there are the black swan events. I believe it is very possible that you could go to bed with Bitcoin at, lets say $8K and wake up and it's 18K. Why? War, China dumping their 2 Trillion Dollars, bank failure event like 2008, etc. The Fed is out of bullets, at some point this big debt turd is going to hit the fan. When it does, ALL THOSE DOLLARS are going to rush into ANYTHING perceived to be a safe haven of value. ANYTHING. What are you going to do then? If the bears are bitching about $7-8K what are they going to say at $17-18K or HIGHER? It could happen, that's why they are called Black Swan events. They are unexpected and when they hit, they hit HARD. You may have heard it said before about other opportunities: "Better to be days, weeks, months, or years early rather than a second late!"
Just some FOMO food for thought. It sounds like FOMO, but I'm totally serious too. That's why I've been in Bitcoin for years, NEVER without at least 50% of my long position in place. I've traded in and out around my core position to scalp here and there but those days are over. The risk of dropping 1-2K does not worry me near as much as waking up to double digit bitcoin overnight. If it never happens, call me a fool if you want, but if it does happen, don't say I never warned you.
And those are my 2 Satoshis on what I think the potential is for Bitcoin.
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I forgot to post my last look at the chart. This is a Dragon. If you watched charts for any length of time you've probably seen this pattern dozens of times. If you didn't, you will now, now that you know what it is.
It has a head, neck, front legs, body, back legs, and a tail. You've seen it before I'm sure.
www.forexstrategiesr...-the-dragon-pattern/
It has a head, neck, front legs, body, back legs, and a tail. You've seen it before I'm sure.
www.forexstrategiesr...-the-dragon-pattern/
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See what I mean?
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From a previous post of mine on how the touch of the line would play out in 5 waves.
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I know it looks cartoonish but that Dragon tail is getting longer by the minute. lol