Here are some of my thoughts about the past two years, the current situation, and how we ended here. One thing is for sure - 2022 is going to be different. One of the main reasons for this is highlighted in the chart: liquidity moves from one market to another. The inflation is increasing and our portfolio value is decreasing. In bearish times, we have to adapt to the situation and customize our strategy. This idea is a very basic approach to aligning fundamentals & technicals on the chart. To round things up, I'm expecting BTCUSD to continue the bearish trend with the lower 20k range in sight. We need a shift in sentiment from a geopolitical & financial perspective in order to make new highs.
What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments.
I agree with the general principal of it going down. But I do not think it stops at 20k I think it blows past it and bounces off the 14k range back to 18k then the rest of the way down to 5-8k range.
@ARESABI, My personal plan is to consider starting to accumulate around the 15k range with buy orders down to 3k and back up. But I am ready if the floor to falls out and will abandon my positions if dictated by the market. If the overall economy turns from recession to depression this goes to triple digits because high risk are always the first to go.
FALLING-CANDLES
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@cel87crypto I think the moving averages aren't as friendly as u think
cel87crypto
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@FALLING-CANDLES, I am not sure what you are trying to say here?
While all you observations are probably correct (and quite astute), there are some odd onchain metrics I'm following on messario that might support a different hypothesis. First - net flow from exchanges is now negative or oscillating around zero. Digging deeper into that, I see top holding addresses (whales) are steadily accumulating when the price is < ~30k.
Also, in general we know when price goes down, miners hold their coins and wait for price to go up. They are now doing that and have been since ~$35-40k (so less supply at this level, but increasing sell pressure).
Then you have to consider that anyone who bought in the last two years is underwater at this point. So: - whales accumulating - miners holding & waiting for price to increas (some taking miners offline, resulting in recent drop in difficulty) - nearly all recent investors in the red
So you have to wonder: for the price to keep going down, who has enough BTC to sell through the powerful buy support we're seeing step in?
That's where you want to keep an eye on large short positions that will be opened only to push price down to scare weak hands into selling (which is not easy with BTC). But that's an expensive bet if you can't sell through it. So there is a strong, data-driven argument for perhaps not a bullish scenario, but a long, choppy sideways ride until the economy improves enough to push through what will then by an enormously constipated sell wall of waiting miners and in the red holders who can't wait to dump a huge amount of BTC.
Regarding alt coins - quite the opposite. I see coins like ADA going down to $0.15 or less by about December.