Much less will be written here than my previous two posts. Here, I'm again using the historical relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins to make an attempt at predicting where the bull market could be headed.
IF we are seeing another boom (like 2017), this is the count I'm currently using. The red boxes indicate bullish Bitcoin waves, while the green boxes indicate potential consolidation zones where we could see some large altcoin gains. You can scroll backwards in the charts to see the altcoin/Bitcoin relationship during the last bull market.
Remember, this is an emerging market, so this is completely speculative. However, this will be the main chart I'll be referring to from here on out.
If somehow this exact trajectory plays out, the target for the eventual altcoin top would be a market cap around $20 Trillion (top of the speculative channel I have drawn, in light blue). Since Bitcoin dominance at the peak of the last bubble was around 33%, that means the entire crypto space would be worth roughly $30 Trillion if that happened again, and Bitcoin would have a value of around $561,914 ($10 Trillion Market cap). For speculative purposes, I put this bubble peak around the time of the next Bitcoin halving (April, 2020). On this chart, I only had room up to around $60-70K unfortunately.
I will revise this chart as things change. I'll be watching for a shift in momentum, as well as any possible shift in trend, which would happen if Bitcoin and alts break down from their long term uptrends. This does not have to play out like the previous bubble did. This is for my personal use only - not to be taken as financial advice. Although if prices do eventually get up towards those ridiculous targets, I will certainly be looking to take profit...unless, of course the U.S. Dollar has collapsed by then ; )
-Victor Cobra
IF we are seeing another boom (like 2017), this is the count I'm currently using. The red boxes indicate bullish Bitcoin waves, while the green boxes indicate potential consolidation zones where we could see some large altcoin gains. You can scroll backwards in the charts to see the altcoin/Bitcoin relationship during the last bull market.
Remember, this is an emerging market, so this is completely speculative. However, this will be the main chart I'll be referring to from here on out.
If somehow this exact trajectory plays out, the target for the eventual altcoin top would be a market cap around $20 Trillion (top of the speculative channel I have drawn, in light blue). Since Bitcoin dominance at the peak of the last bubble was around 33%, that means the entire crypto space would be worth roughly $30 Trillion if that happened again, and Bitcoin would have a value of around $561,914 ($10 Trillion Market cap). For speculative purposes, I put this bubble peak around the time of the next Bitcoin halving (April, 2020). On this chart, I only had room up to around $60-70K unfortunately.
I will revise this chart as things change. I'll be watching for a shift in momentum, as well as any possible shift in trend, which would happen if Bitcoin and alts break down from their long term uptrends. This does not have to play out like the previous bubble did. This is for my personal use only - not to be taken as financial advice. Although if prices do eventually get up towards those ridiculous targets, I will certainly be looking to take profit...unless, of course the U.S. Dollar has collapsed by then ; )
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
I will emphasize again that these numbers are completely speculative - even if the altcoin market made it to $20 Trillion, it's possible Bitcoin wouldn't maintain 33% dominance. Or - it's fully possible that the market growth slows down. This would happen basically if we had a total repeat of 2017. Perhaps that chance will never arise again. Anyway, here's where we are today. Bitcoin has started consolidating on lower volume. If this were to continue playing out like 2016-17, we'd see Bitcoin go sideways for quite a while - even until September. Within the next couple of weeks, we'd see money start pouring back into altcoins. I'm keeping an eye on that bullish channel (orange) for any deviations from 2016-2017.
Comment:
Alts are moving up, but again not as fast as Bitcoin. Things are starting to diverge a little bit from July 2016. If Bitcoin can take out the recent high, perhaps it'll break out of the channel sooner rather than later. We'll see. Here's 2016:
Comment:
Actually looking more closely, in July 2016 Bitcoin did make a slightly higher high from the peak after the bounce (12 days after the initial dump). Interestingly, we're currently 12 days after the initial dump right now. If things are going to continue following what happened then, we should see Bitcoin head back down soon. Otherwise, I'll be looking at other possibilities.
Comment:
This is what I'm talking about:
Comment:
Comment:
Very interesting development today. Even though it briefly headed above $13K, Bitcoin price is still being contained in the zone where I'd expect it to fail, if the July 2016 comparison is going to play out. So far, so good. Remember, any sustained break of the orange channel, and I'll have to scrap this entire "roadmap" and redo it.
