I am back with a quick update on my previous ideas, still targetting 13k before a significant correction. We have survived another day and stayed above the big correction line. There can only be 3 issues today: - We tighten in the range I have shown on my chart. - We go below 10210, this is very dangerous. We would test the pink line again. - We go above 11065, Bitcoin finally leaves us off the hook. Will be watching for continuation to 13k.
For day traders, this is not the best zone to trade.
We already have 4 green candles in a row, a little bit of pullback/consolidation is necessary before the bulls go test 11065 and show to us how strong they are.
+++ I am not a financial advisor (good luck finding one in crypto). Trade at your own risk +++
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I have now published over 20 ideas and haven't been wrong once. I'd like to review them in the huge text wall (don't worry you don't have to read it all):
Free money, Bitcoin likely direction ==> Called a drop to the 5600-6000 area and it's EXACTLY what happened. When I posted the idea the price was at 7160 (Bitstamp chart). WAS I WRONG? Crypto isn't predictable ==> Skyrocketed crazy after that... WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin next move ==> No precise target, was expecting a 10 to 15% profit on that one. 7925 to 9000+ = 13.5%. WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin, safe trade good reward low risk. ==> Dropped from 9100 as expected, not as hard as I hoped, but I followed it all the way called the important levels and took profit along the road. WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin. Opportunity of a lifetime. Too good to be true? ==> I gave 4 scenarios and number 1 (We go up rejecting downtrend resistance) happened. WAS I WRONG? BTC could give us a new entry on Lisk. Maybe? Please? ==> Followed my scenario 4 and is getting close to my buy zone. WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin kindly offering us discounts on alts - NEO ==> Pointed out buy zones which would result in profit, good idea to buy in these zones, do nothing if NEO doesn't go there. Sadly wa didn't get ez moniz (yet), but the important question is WAS I WRONG? Beware the biggest bubble of all times! ==> Did Bitcoin crash to 1000 during this correction? Did it? WAS I WRONG? Am I seing something here? RIP USD. ==> We'll know in a couple of years... Bitcoin getting ready to explode and provide 20% gains fast? ==> Bitcoin went BOOM. Oh my bad it didn't make 20% gain from the price when I published the chart, only 17% MABAD :D WAS I WRONG? Market enthusiasm back already? (Short term idea) ==> To the moon! WAS I WRONG? ETH will shine again ==> Still waiting for Bitcoin to finish its little dance so ETH can take the spotlight... Bitcoin - Less than 2 days left till it blows. Tic tac. ==> Took 1 day. It blasted that flag and went into my concrete wall. And then pullbacked and is now on its way to go dig further in that wall and go throught without dropping 1k+. WAS I WRONG? This was fun, back down we go now :D ==> Fell from 10800 to 9200. WAS I WRONG? BTC. Being prepared for the bounce - 15% is realistic. ==> "Buy area = 9000-9500 Target = evaluate as we go, keep on eye on the chart see if the resistance get broken through. The 12000-13000 area is realistic." WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin. Target 13000. ==> Going well for now... Bitcoin - What's going to happen in the next couple of months ==> Will get the results at the end of May. Destroying bears main argument ==> Not even worth my time bothering explaining that one. WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin - Is the correction over? ==> Got out of the downtrend for 3 days now. WAS I WRONG? Bitcoin. 16800 in March. Is that even possible? TA says yes. ==> Wait and see. The Cup and Handle and H&S are not that great, that might ruin my score. Nooooo.... Tron. Waiting on the sideline. ==> Going to take a while. Top 3 reasons why investing a bit into crypto isn't that crazy ==> Going to take a really long while lol. Talking about long term investments. Bitcoin - This is it! WE CLOSED ABOVE DOWNTREND. ==> Did we come crashing down? Did I lie to people so I could short? Did Bitcoin drop to 6k? WAS I WRONG?
Not a single bad idea. Put mics down.
(Now I don't expect to be right all the time, but 80% or more would be pretty awesome! I do expect to always be ready for every scenario and cut my losses early if things don't go as planned and only take nice risk to reward trades)
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The technicals finally moved to strong buy on the daily (1 sell 9 neutral 16 buy), weekly is still at buy (4 9 13), and monthly at buy (3 7 12). This gives a bit of confirmation of a possible uptrend. tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/technicals/
We need a pullback, I want to see one of the 2 following scenarios happen. I would be very confident if they were to happen.
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Yet another 2 hour inside bar, and - maybe - a bullish pennant again. If we don't drop under 0.236 that's going to be so bullish for the next hours lol.
Couldn't find much on the internet about shallow pullbacks...Wanted to post something... All I got is this "During a very strong trend, pullbacks are typically shallow, stopping at the 38.2 or even the 23.6 level. During normal rhythmic trends, a pullback of 50% or 61.8% is common. During weak trends, or when a trend is over-extended, a pullback of 78.6% is common" - from etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/using-fibonacci-retracements-to-find-etf-entry-points/
Thanks for sharing. Is it logical to expect another setback towards 10.3k on this upward path?
MrRenev
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@gusccbb, No, if we truly go up the impulse from 10210 to 10831 should retrace to higher than 10300.
I do not have giant spreadsheets but I know that impulses retrace to somewhere between 0.618 and 0.236 about 85-90% of the time before going back up.
Here 0.768 is 10339, 10300 is even lower than that, if we go there odds aren't great to going up, the odds would be more in favor of staying within the range for a while or dropping.
But whatever happens we have to stay above 10210, and if we don't the pink line has to hold.
IMO the most likely retrace right now is 0.5 or approximately 10500.
gusccbb
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@MrRenev, thanks for your answer. I'm not a technical analyst, my question is because in the BTC 4H chart I think it's a small H & S formation and for the right shoulder there should be a setback. I'm wrong?
MrRenev
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@gusccbb, You mean this? Or if else can you post it?
What I drew isn't a H&S it has to fit better than this.
gusccbb
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@MrRenev, Sorry, Sorry, I was not clear. I saw an inverse H & S formation in 2H and 4H (Poloniex) graphics and I'm sure it's probably wrong. I'm just looking for a convenient entry point because I missed the 10200 yesterday. Thanks for your time to answer me.