The market crash this week is primarily down to China reiterating the 2013 and 2017 bans on financial and payment institutions from providing any services related to cryptocurrency transactions. For those that were around last time this happened in 2017, you'll remember BTC hitting the dizzying heights of $5000 and falling 41% to around the $3000 support level on the news.
However, this dip was short lived. What followed was an almost 600% increase in price to the 2017 peak over 91 days. If you were to extrapolate that trend line to today's chart, we get a sharp run up to $170,000+. Obviously the market conditions are very different to 2017 and such a parabolic run is unlikely with the market cap being substantially higher. It is not totally unrealistic though. The world's biggest bank - J.P.Morgan estimate the long-term theoretical Bitcoin price at $146,000 and fair value for bitcoin in risk capital (i.e. risk-adjusted) terms around $37,000. This lower boundary looks like good support with whales buying aggressively below these levels. J.P.Morgan has historically been bearish on BTC. More optimistic figures such as Cathie Wood predict BTC to reach $500,000. Expect another bull run before the next bear cycle.
However, this dip was short lived. What followed was an almost 600% increase in price to the 2017 peak over 91 days. If you were to extrapolate that trend line to today's chart, we get a sharp run up to $170,000+. Obviously the market conditions are very different to 2017 and such a parabolic run is unlikely with the market cap being substantially higher. It is not totally unrealistic though. The world's biggest bank - J.P.Morgan estimate the long-term theoretical Bitcoin price at $146,000 and fair value for bitcoin in risk capital (i.e. risk-adjusted) terms around $37,000. This lower boundary looks like good support with whales buying aggressively below these levels. J.P.Morgan has historically been bearish on BTC. More optimistic figures such as Cathie Wood predict BTC to reach $500,000. Expect another bull run before the next bear cycle.