Beginner here, spent last night learning all I could about Elliot waves. I decided to try and predict a wave II target for fun. Everything seems pretty textbook so far except 'b', which retraced to the .618 level instead of .382. If the retracement of II plays out as a zig-zag we expect wave 'c' to land in the blue price range, which is between .618 and 1x wave 'a'. If we decide instead to anticipate an inverted widening triangle (as would sometimes be the case with the high retracement of the 'b' wave), then we expect wave 'c' to retrace around 123.6% of wave 'b'. This still lands in our blue zone.
Concomitantly, wave II must retrace at least to .382 of wave I. This is also in our blue zone, and just so happens to line up necely with the first resistance of the senkou span. At this point the limits of the Bollinger band would be stressed, and we either see a bounce leading into wave III, or we see a downward breakout taking us to at least the .500 level of wave I before initiating wave III.
Plan: Long at 'c', once signs of reversal show in the indicators. Stop-loss at $339.99 (conservative, invalidates wave count), or 2 fib levels below entry (aggressive, invalidates any supposed reversal signals and Ichimoku cloud support levels). First profit target $472 (This is somewhat arbitrary, and I will adjust with further research. I would prefer a 1:2 R/W before entering a trade).
I have a bullish longerm bias, but realize lots can happen that I do not expect. Thoughts?
Comments
MagnusTradingGroup
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i would suggest looking for a better R/W than 1:2 - you will have to get every 4th trade right to break even. it might sound easy but for a beginner it can be pretty hard.
look for more longer term in-trend ideas with R/W over 1:2. also learn different indicators, don't limit yourself to only one source of signals. this will enable you to cross-verify ideas and look for optimal trade entry points. using only one method like EW or only one indicator is not reliable. on the other hand using too many indicators etc will give you too much information and paralize you. also don't only limit yourself to TA. It's great and all but it's always nice to be able to support your ideas with some fundamental informations etc. Have fun learning and remember: 90% of traders lose 90% of their capital in their first 90 days :P
RimmerDall
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Thanks for the advice (I like that last part haha)!
look for more longer term in-trend ideas with R/W over 1:2. also learn different indicators, don't limit yourself to only one source of signals. this will enable you to cross-verify ideas and look for optimal trade entry points. using only one method like EW or only one indicator is not reliable. on the other hand using too many indicators etc will give you too much information and paralize you. also don't only limit yourself to TA. It's great and all but it's always nice to be able to support your ideas with some fundamental informations etc. Have fun learning and remember: 90% of traders lose 90% of their capital in their first 90 days :P