AlanSantana

Bitcoin v USD -Daily & Weekly- Trend Line (Up Or Down? Question)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Above I am sharing with you two different Bitcoin charts, very simple and basic charts. These are Bitcoin charts, one is daily and the other is weekly.

Let's take a look at what I am up to now?! Actual, I LOVE YOU... Let's have some fun...

Let me ask you a question, but before that... Let's chat a little bit...

Now, I know you are aware of the "Bubble Chart", this is a very famous chart that it is being shared all around and it looks very similar to the Bitcoin chart above, pointing to a point /
stage where the bubble is fully crashing and finally putting Bitcoin in the low $100s - $1,000s, which I don't believe it is likely to happen but still can happen anyways, so this is where my question to you comes into play.

Anyways, here you can take a look for yourself, at the charts, and let's see what we can find out...

*** Bitcoin Chart Analysis by Alan Masters: Daily

Let's take a look at the daily chart first. The one on the left.

- The green line is the trend-line, this is basically support. This is the price level that Bitcoin has been holding on to up until now. You can see the bounce from the $6,000 level on the far right which is a long stick on a green candle.

- Where do I want to go with this? Look at the indicators... - This is all going to end in a question -, the MACD is hovering around low levels and curving to go up. This curve hasn't been completed, but this is what I can see now, and what you can see now, by looking at the chart on the left.

- You can see that the RSI bounced from a level not seen since 5 months ago (around Sept. 2017). Pretty low if you ask me, also bouncing clearly right before reaching the oversold line. The STOCH also bounced from these low levels.

- So we are looking at the trend line , the strong bounce from it, the MACD curving and the bounce the RSI and STOCH had from very low levels that hadn't been seen in months... Let's keep going...

*** Bitcoin Chart Analysis by Alan Masters: Weekly

- On our right we have the weekly chart. The RSI here is sitting on a level that it hasn't seen since 2015. This is something new for Bitcoin , I don't know how your year mentality works, but here in Cryptos, 2015 is either really far away, or really, really, really far away. So basically these are levels that haven't been seen for a while.

- All the indicators are trending downward on the weekly chart. But the OBV is already changing tune. The STOCH is trying to curve, the MACD is going low but the curve can be shaped above the middle line and the price bounced strong from the trend line on the main chart. The EMA30 became a resistance point.

*** Finally... We get to the question...

Looking at these charts above, and these signals, which I just described... Let me ask you this:

Do you really think Bitcoin will go to $100s - $1,000s, or work its way around these levelsm $6000 - $8600, before it decides if it either wants to go sideways and consolidate or go up?

That's my questions, for you, my infinite, eternal and special, unique Divine Soul.

Namaste.
Comment: Bitcoin had a good close yesterday and momentum is building up. We will be facing resistance soon, here, take a quick look on the 4h and 1D charts:

4h -
1D -
Comment: We can look for a close above the $9300 - $9500 range to confirm more strength on the daily chart. After that we go from there.

If these levels are not broken, we can expect sideways movement or going back down, we will know soon. Let's wait for this week to close to see how next week will go.
Comment: For general updates on Bitcoins price and movement please follow the following trade idea (click the image below):

Comment: Bitcoin started the day really good today, we are working above the resistance line, which is great but one quick questions: Is this a dead cat bounce or will this hold?

I will let the market decide.

Here is the 1H next to the 1D charts, I am using my updated chart here but do not pay attention to it, you can focus on the fact that we are above resistance and we need to close daily above it for Bitcoin to show more strength.


Even though I am enjoying this price, for me this isn't enough to start to party, but definitely a step in the right direction.

Short term we need to correct a bit if Bitcoin wants to continue further... I will leave the rest of the analysis for my next update.

Thanks for taking the time to read this message, I hope you enjoyed it.

Namaste.
Trade active: Bitcoin is still holding strong. The resistance line that was broken already served as support, you can see this on the 4 hours chart.

You can also see, on the chart that I will be sharing below, that the EMA7 crossed EMA21, this is a bullish signal.

4h charts:
I am not still bullish on Bitcoin, until Bitcoin gives us some more. My intention is to write a fully updated trade idea, but I am waiting until I get a better feel of the market, right now I haven't been looking at it for long enough.
Trade active: Bitcoin is doing really good right now, our close today will give us a lot of information as to what might come next.

We have to aim to close above $9,500 to clear some more resistance points. If we close above this, 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin will be signaling even more strength, which is great for us and the entire cryptocurrency markets.

Here is the 2h and 1d charts:

2H:
1D:
The indicators are looking good we just need more volume and momentum, which is building up slowly.
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Comments

I've noticed a number of people on here looking for buy and sell signals. It's not wise to put so much confidence in one trader. We all make mistakes and could lead you in the wrong direction. Just because someone tells you to buy, it doesn't mean the trade will work out in your favor. To the contrary, it could lead to big losses if you don't know what you are doing. The best thing is for you to learn how to read price action and trade on your own. There is nothing wrong with looking for ideas from more experienced traders, but if you don't learn how to trade on your own you will not make it in this market: you will lose more than you win. Having said that, I came across a an article written by a professional trader; perhaps it will be useful to you: https://www.theforexguy.com/price-action-forex/
+15 Reply
5th leg of the correction did not complete 5 subwaves yet. This uptrend is an ABC upward correction of the downtrend before it completes it's last leg down.
Expect one more leg down between $4800 and $5800
+11 Reply
AlanSantana Floodrod
@Floodrod, Thanks for sharing.
Reply
@AlanSantana I think we can all feel the downward pressure even without TA. On the 4hr which I prefer to gauge medium term trends it's obvious bitcoin is having much trouble testing the 200 MA. the 20MA and 50 MA are next in that order. These used to be support lines and now act as resistance.

It's good on the 4hr that BTC is making higher lows, however it has tested near the 200 MA 3X and failed to break.
The RSI is maxing near 60 and this is preventing the price action to break these resistance levels.
MACD and DMI are both starting to show some light on the 4hr and only get better as you go to the 1hr and below.

I feel more than anything market sentiment is still bearish to neutral. Without any positive news on the horizon we will continue to trade sideways under the 200MA on the 4hr. We are nearing a decision point soon and IMO we will break to lower lows as we are trading inside a descending channel with a retest near 6k again...maybe slightly lower. who knows tho. this is the million dollar answer rightt?
+10 Reply
AlanSantana WolfpackCrypto
@WolfpackCrypto, Right, but still you gave me an amazing analysis. Thanks a lot for sharing.
Reply
WolfpackCrypto AlanSantana
@AlanSantana, trying to learn from you. We all look forward to your publications.
+1 Reply
If Bitcoin goes to $100 I will even sell my shoes to buy bitcoin
+10 Reply
photinoman mvc64200
@mvc64200, same here! We are talking about a tech, a little bit slow and expensive but it has not been hacked for the last 8 years.
Reply
Jadeba mvc64200
@mvc64200, lol, love it, amen
Reply
Hi Alanmasters, Your question will scare a lot of people. You have a good view with the tools you are using. Using different tools might help us to get another point of view.
Ichimoku 1 hour : Kinjun was able to get out of the cloud for the first time since the 29/01.The Chikou/lagging span followed and his now sitting on top of Tenken and Kinjun, however it's testing the Kinjun and has already crossed the Kinjun. All 3 are getting closer to the kumo, meaning the momentum is weakening.
> Best guess is : be careful, the bounce is weak
6 hours view is quite different. All majors indicators sitting below the cloud. The cloud itself is getting wider, meaning crossing will require strong pressure.
I see supports are at $6500, $5300 and $4070. The lower they go the stronger they are.
> So I don't see BTC falling down to $100/$1000.

To me the question is different: at what price will BTC never really recover ? it doesn't matter if we do down to $5k or $4k. The main concerns is what('s the matter of BTC is it falls to $1k and recover to $1.5k within 3 years.
+8 Reply