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BITCOIN Market Cycles: Divergence and Convergence.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On this analysis I compare Bitcoin's two most recent cycles: the 2014 - 2016 and the current one 2018 - 2019.

What stands out is that even though they both followed the same trend line (i.e. after the peak the bear market followed, a bottom was made on the parabolic curve and then the new bull cycle gradually started), they tend to diverge at some parts, only to make contact again.

It is obvious that during the bear market the current cycle (2018 - 2019) has been leading the previous one (2014 - 2016). What I mean is that when the diverged the current cycle moved below the previous one. It can be argued that it led the "bear market race".

It should then be no surprise tha at the moment (and after the bottom has been made) it appears to be also leading the "bull market race". The new diverge has already taken place and it appears to be seen if this pattern is confirmed by another contact.

It is also quite remarkable that the duration of the past two divergence-contact sequences was around 145 days on each pattern. This makes me assume that the current sequence may also last roughly 145 days which puts the next possible contact in the coming September (2019).

Of course this model is only based on specific market dynamics and ignores whatever fundamentals ( bullish or bearish ) may hit the market. It definitely doesn't provide trading levels but purely intends to point out that the return to the "mean" (i.e. contact) is a possibility for this pattern.


What are your thoughts? Do you think such comparison is futile or the pattern dynamics can push the current price action to another "contact"?



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Very interesting!
I use a very similar comparison in my publications of the last six months but having undervalued the current pump ($3150 to $6500 instead of $8300), I have since May 16 a complementary fractal which warns against the current parable very similar to that of 2017 (but with a triple top?) :

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The expected retracement has already taken place and we have to get ready for potential further falls. However, a medium upward trend can have begun.

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Same fractal is play out like XAGUSD
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@alpdemalp, Very interesting theoretical pattern! Thanks for sharing!
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Hi guys, check my forecast pls ;) thx
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TradingShot MaksymAnatolievich
@MaksymAnatolievich, Thank you Maksym! Pretty accurate, congrats!
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@TradingShot, Thank u
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So my original idea from January 4, 2019 at which many people rolled their eyes and commented "oh no, never ever" was probably right!
Today it looks like this. We will see...
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@ReallyMe, Thanks for sharing ReallyYou.
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ReallyMe TradingShot
@TradingShot, gladly. Me ;-)
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