BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We have broken 6480 on a 2nd attempt and almost reached the 7000 bull target in an upwards ABC correction being one of the possibilities in my earlier analysis.
Bitcoin was stopped/rejected by H4 EMA200. We're currently in an upwards channel that can become a Bear flag , having support of H4 SMA50.

Note a slight bear squeeze on BitMEX with 7143 high while there's only 6900 on other exchanges.
Bitcoin Bulls made this magic leap during a scheduled maintenance hour on BitMEX, so that poor BitMEX bears couldn't defend their sell walls/get out of their sell orders.
They were all hunted down and exterminated, their stop losses and liquidations giving fuel to further upthrust. This is price Manipulation at its worst.
That's why this whole magic move was not sustainable in the first place, and didn't get much follow through resulting in a flush.

Now I see 2 possible scenarios:

- we break 6200, 6000 and 5800 support and go down in 5 waves of A of ABC (red count) with prev established bear targets: 5800, 5600 and 5300. Expect bounces from 5800 and the pitchfork median line .

- we break 6800 once again to have another leg in WXY wave (iv) (green count) and go up to reach a 7150 bull target around Aug, 31st - the next futures expiration date.
7150 is 50% and 23.6% retracements of prev swings, an upper boundary of the giant triangle, a BitMEX high and a key level for if not invalidating wave (iv) of a down trend then shifting bias to bullish at least.

Although it's once again bear time, I think a bounce from 6200 and a move up to 7150 is possible, because BitMEX bots have just accidentally revealed those plans by squeezing bears.

So, keep an eye on the channel and median lines, watch tensorcharts and act accordingly.


Here I'm using my MultiSmaEmaBB indicator which can display multiple EMAs, SMAs , BB of all types with MTF support. I'm currently testing it and will post it soon.


Good Luck!

This is not a financial advice, use at your own risk! Please don't trade based only on my analysis, confirm with other ideas first.
Comment: SEC Rejects 9 Bitcoin ETF Applications from ProShares, Direxion and GraniteShares
https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-rejec...

This explains the sudden drop in price and could mean a further decline
Comment: We can still go up in wave y of 4/B a bit higher but time's running out.
RSI Oversold, D1 SMA 50 and D1 EMA 100 resistance.
EMA 12x26 bull cross on a daily soon.
Expect a dump around/after the futures expiration.

Comments

hello.. why do you think that there could be a further decline? don't you think that that the sudden drop did the job already?
so far, it seems to respect the wave (iv) boundaries
Reply
RagingRocketBull adam_evangelos
@adam_evangelos,

By now the bad news may be already priced in with some insiders with prior knowledge already gone short, but it could serve as a catalyst for a further drop, since bulls haven't proven anything yet.
Also we're talking about some CBOE futures ETF, not the important CME ETF backed by actual BTC that everyone awaits by Sep 30.

Bearish:
- EMA 12x26 cross down on D1, H1, on H4 soon
- candle with a huge rejection wick on D1
- increasing sell volume on D1, H4
- death crosses on M15, H4, rejection by EMA200, we were stopped at 38.2% retracement of prev swing, and are now below SMA/EMA200 on H1
- the larger wave (iv) seem to be complete, we might be in smaller wave iv on our way down - will probably go a bit higher then go down in wave v of (i)
- multiple golden/death crosses on H1 negating each other - indecision
- sharp drop to 96% retracement of the prev swing
- same thing on the futures chart where we never broke above H4 EMA200
- ETF futures rejected news
- bearish RSI < 50 on H1 through weekly and not oversold - has room to go down
- divergence on H4 EWO
- OBV failed to break its major resistance and is declining
- 1st red candle on D1 Heikin Ashi, indecision candles on H4
- bear cross on H4 MACD, still bearish on W1
- a move from 6200 to 6900 to 6250 is a small fractal of the whole move from 5800 to 8500 to 5900 (same 96% retracement, same ETF news)


Bullish:
- we have broken 6600 in attempt to invalidate the wave (iv) of down trend
- BitMEX high 7143 could be a clue to what's coming
- strong buy reaction with a long wick
- we're at the bottom of an upwards channel, it may hold and the price will go up
- shorts are at april's record highs => bear squeeze is incoming
- King Leonidas himself and 300 brave whale bot HODLers are defending the unbreakkable 6K wall
- futures expiration on 31st (might be bullish and require the price to go up)
- flat bottom on H4 ichimoku could prevent us from falling through (but it's not strong like a flat top) - remains to be seen
- bull crosses on H1, D1 MACD


So, it boils down to what do you believe in, TA or some Bull-ish empirical sorcery.
Reply
@Msparky, any particular reason why you use 10D interval, 500 and 1000 day MAs instead of weekly and 200, 400... MAs ? Does the price respect those historically?
Reply
wow bro. put a password to your pc. your kids messed your chart.
Reply
RagingRocketBull AliSerdarSahin
@AliSerdarSahin, If my stuff is too complicated for you then I'm sure you would appreciate the analysis below. It's quite obvious and simple to understand. Practically a no-brainer.
Reply
AliSerdarSahin RagingRocketBull
@RagingRocketBull, just kidding.. thanks for the effort :)
Reply
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