Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's jump right in. Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC has rolled over a bit, in a way that is short-term bearish. As you can see, BTC has lost the 78.6% retrace, the 20 EMA (in blue) and the 50 EMA (in orange,) over the past 24 hours. What's most interesting about this recent break back below those key levels, is that BTC just surpassed them a couple of days ago. Therefore, we could be looking at a failure to rally above those aforementioned key levels. From a capital preservation perspective, I am of the opinion that it is wise to use the 50 EMA as an overall indicator of strength. On any rallies above the 50 EMA, I'm looking for a retest, and a successful hold for new longs. However, failures like this, are reason enough for me to side-step this action.
Here on BTC, we're in a range that I'm not very comfortable trading at the moment, and that's perfectly fine. You don't always need to have money on the table, or exposure in the market. Personally, I like to wait for explosive setups, where I can trade the breakouts, or the subsequent failures. With that being said, we can see that BTC is in the middle of the road at the moment. The top of the downtrend channel is above us (in black) and a very important rising support level is below us (in black dots.) Since we are between these two levels, while gaining and losing the 50 EMA, it's currently hard to say which level will be reached first. So, if BTC regains the 78.6% retrace, I will probably go long there, and now that these levels have been lost, I'm considering some shorts, with a tight stop above the 50.
Ideally, however, the best thing to do, is to wait for the setup. For educational purposes, if you don't have money on the table, or if you want to protect your capital, you could just wait until either the top of the channel is reached, or the rising dotted trendline is reached. Either one of those levels, will present the type of trading opportunities that I look for. If we breakout, I will trade that breakout, and if it fails, I will flip and trade that too. I've found that trading this way, around key levels, enables me to secure prime entries, often with very little risk to my positions.
With regards to my analysis from two days ago, referencing the head test of the inverse head and shoulders formation, we could still be forming that structure, which would send BTC up for a test of the inverse head and shoulders neckline (in blue.) However, I don't currently like the technical risk that has developed, as BTC has failed to hold the 20 and 50 EMAs, as well as the 78.6% retrace. As I've said before, if we get back above those levels, I will reassess longs. Until then, this is a development of technical weakness that I want to avoid.
On the MACD, you can see that there was a bearish crossover, and the momentum is expanding to the downside, as it prepares to cross below the zero line, which would be a technical sell signal. So, you can see how in the past 24 hours, the technical picture on the four hour time-frame, has become increasingly bearish. That could easily change, though, with a rally back above the 786. I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
Comment
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BTC is now above the 20 and the 50, but still below the 786. If we can close above all three, that would be a good sign.
But if yes then no and probably up but also down, also could consolidate or go even more up. If this happens we go slightly up but then again it could also go down. Have a nice day!
Marzo999
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lots of words , if and elses and then...... no solid TA
Snuby3
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@Marzo999, whether you like or agree with the way he does it or not, I can attest to the fact that it works great. I've made a lot of money basing my ta off of his ta. Myself, being a complete novice/beginner, his methods are super easy to learn.. and super effective. if I can have the amount of success I am having using his approach - coming from having absolutely no idea what I was doing about a month ago - I went from slowly bleeding profit to amassing litecoin at an unprecedented rate.. just from learning from this guy his approach. it may not be what you consider to be TA, but that's your opinion. My opinion is that it's life changing.. but that is merely my own perspective. yours and mine can be different.
AsBobbyDigital
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@Snuby3,
You are 100% right!!! These TA are best ones!!!
CrowdConscious
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@Snuby3, those who do not see the light aren't trying hard enough or are blinded by their own insecurities/ignorance.
fiki
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@Marzo999, Actually, nobody knows how the price will develop. That's why we try to think in scenarios. Try to let a bot do the trade work for you. =) They can be reliable. But there is a steep learning curve.