So I just draw the long and short position data of the leveraged funds from the COT report.
As you can observe, once the leveraged funds start increasing their short positions (red line) and these are above the long positions (green line), a few weeks later we have a steep drop in BTC price, between 50% to 60%.
Nobody in tradingview is looking at this data, everybody just draw lines and figures but basically ignore what the big players are doing. The difference between short and longs is huge at this point and price action indicates indecision from market participants (narrow range candlesticks) so I expect a big move in the coming days, and given that the other 3 historical cases have resulted in -50% to -60% drop, the most likely scenario is that we will see a similar move to the downside (of course we could also see a short squeeze and huge move to the upside, but I think this is quite unlikely at this point).
This also aligns with my long term historical analysis, which is also bearish for the coming weeks and months, but long term bullish after the next drop.
As you can observe, once the leveraged funds start increasing their short positions (red line) and these are above the long positions (green line), a few weeks later we have a steep drop in BTC price, between 50% to 60%.
Nobody in tradingview is looking at this data, everybody just draw lines and figures but basically ignore what the big players are doing. The difference between short and longs is huge at this point and price action indicates indecision from market participants (narrow range candlesticks) so I expect a big move in the coming days, and given that the other 3 historical cases have resulted in -50% to -60% drop, the most likely scenario is that we will see a similar move to the downside (of course we could also see a short squeeze and huge move to the upside, but I think this is quite unlikely at this point).
This also aligns with my long term historical analysis, which is also bearish for the coming weeks and months, but long term bullish after the next drop.
Comment:
Big move but to the upside which started on the weekend, causing a short squeeze in the futures market. I still think btc owns as a leg down.
From a wyckoffian perspective it seems we are in a distribution or reaccumulation zone, as most of the stages have already ocurred. Big volume but failure to break above the 12.000 zone shows indecision. Could be in the 9500 - 12000 for a few weeks more.
Now given that more stimulus is coming, and dollar is being devalued I would expect btc to break above 12.000 at some point and start the bull run.
From a wyckoffian perspective it seems we are in a distribution or reaccumulation zone, as most of the stages have already ocurred. Big volume but failure to break above the 12.000 zone shows indecision. Could be in the 9500 - 12000 for a few weeks more.
Now given that more stimulus is coming, and dollar is being devalued I would expect btc to break above 12.000 at some point and start the bull run.
See related idea to understand the projection.