WKMAnalytics
Short

BTC is going through the cliff (-50% to -60%)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So I just draw the long and short position data of the leveraged funds from the COT report.

As you can observe, once the leveraged funds start increasing their short positions (red line) and these are above the long positions (green line), a few weeks later we have a steep drop in BTC price, between 50% to 60%.

Nobody in tradingview is looking at this data, everybody just draw lines and figures but basically ignore what the big players are doing. The difference between short and longs is huge at this point and price action indicates indecision from market participants (narrow range candlesticks ) so I expect a big move in the coming days, and given that the other 3 historical cases have resulted in -50% to -60% drop , the most likely scenario is that we will see a similar move to the downside (of course we could also see a short squeeze and huge move to the upside, but I think this is quite unlikely at this point).

This also aligns with my long term historical analysis, which is also bearish for the coming weeks and months, but long term bullish after the next drop .

Comments

Thank you for the Analysis sir
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Where can I find the COT indicator? I don't see it listed in the indicators.
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@nemaconz, I built it in pine script from COT report indicator, you have to add to the code the BTC futures code from quandl

https://www.quandl.com/data/CFTC/133741_F_ALL-Commitment-of-Traders-BITCOIN-CME-Futures-Only-133741
+1 Reply
nemaconz WKMAnalytics
@WKMAnalytics, Thank you!!
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Nice layout easy to follow!
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