My weird thirst for knowledge and analysis brings us to another study. This time we are going to take a look at and breakdown Price Action during the Chinese New Years.
This is neither the time or the place to write an article on the Chinese New Years, so I'll leave you to research that to your hearts content. What we should be aware of is there are many cultures involved and they al celebrate a bit differently. Some start a week before, some a few days before and some the night before. Some celebrate for one day while others for three, some for seven and there are even some who celebrate for fifteen days.
What is the PURPOSE? I believe that the Asian Market contributes a lot to Bitcoin trading. Volume, Price Action, Mining, etc. All these things are intertwined and just like here in America during Major Holidays, traders can lose focus of the charts and spend more time with Family and less time trading. I will be looking for any anomalies that show up when the Chinese New Year is happening to see if there are any similarities or weight to this theory.
The knowledge that is readily available is the actual Date of the Chinese New Year and that will be the center of the focus here.
2012 - 23 Jan Dragon - Monday 2013 - 10 Feb Snake - Sunday 2014 - 31 Jan Horse - Friday 2015 - 19 Feb Goat - Thursday 2016 - 8 Feb Monkey - Monday 2017 - 28 Jan Rooster - Saturday 2018 - 16 Feb Dog - Friday 2019 - 5 Feb Pig - Tuesday 2020 - 25 Jan Rat - Saturday
We are using BitSTAMP for the history. Anyway, enough of the intro, let's get rolling...
2012 - Monday, January 23 - The Year of the Dragon (I know. The price action in 2012 was absolute garbage but we will look nonetheless)
The preceding trend was upward The preceding volume was trending down The week before started making the turn for a pullback The Day Itself - Nothing unusual The first week - continued down with aggressive lows The second week - continued down with some aggressive lows but recovered high
2013 - Sunday, February 10 - The Year of the Snake
The preceding trend was upward - Slightly The preceding volume was flat The week before continue rise from trend The Day Itself - Nothing unusual The first week - 6/8 candles in a row - steady rise The second week - The Rise continues Volume - Nothing unusual during the run but very low on the day before and the day of
2014 - Friday, January 31 - The Year of the Horse
The preceding trend was down The preceding volume was declining The week before - Down The Day Itself - Doji - Indecision The first week - Day one dump - Day 2-7 retrace dump The second week - Steady selloff Volume - Very low - Built up during selloff at the end of the second week
2015 - Thursday, February 19 - The Year of the GOAT
The preceding trend was down The preceding volume was flat, ramp up and ramp down The week before - Up with a heavy pullback The Day Itself - Nothing special The first week - Slow rise ascending tri The second week - Down M-TH - Up on Weekend Volume - Overall steady decline - Last Saturday pump
Notes: That upward sloping trend was the trend from the 2013 festival
2016 - Monday, February 16 - The Year of the Monkey
The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle The preceding volume was declining - one bump The week before - Up with a slow drop The Day Itself - Bearish, nothing special The first week - Steady Rise The second week - Steady Rise - Broke Pattern Volume - Overall fairly flat
Notes: The Weekend Volume before the New Year was incredibly low
2017 - Saturday, January 28 - The Year of the Rooster
The preceding trend was upward from year prior The preceding volume was rising with quick decline The week before - Good upward push The Day Itself - Doji - Very little trading The first week - Pullback with retrace The second week - Steady Rise - Great push Volume - Decline until week 2
Notes: Upward sloping trend in white is from the Year of the Monkey the year prior
2018 - Friday, February 16 - The Year of the Dog
The preceding trend was sharp decline from (ATH) The preceding volume was fairly even with some breakouts The week before - Huge trend reversal The Day Itself - Nothing special The first week - Another big push to the upside The second week - Local high and then pullback Volume - Big pop for reversal week before - then pretty flat
Notes: This 5920 was a key level before the 2018 Low was achieved
2019 - Tuesday, February 05 - The Year of the Pig
The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle (the 2018 bottom The preceding volume was a sharp decline The week before - Decline - higher lows The Day Itself - Nothing special The first week - 4 day decline - Friday pump The second week - Steady Decline Volume - Week before down but slow rise after that
Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015
---2020---NOT READY 2020 - Saturday, January 25 - The Year of the Rat
The preceding trend was heavily down The preceding volume was declining with some pops The week before - Big push to the high side The Day Itself - The first week - The second week - Volume - High with sharp decline the week before
Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015 - Still the SAME Trend
Cleaning up the chart with a fully Zoomed out view.. I saw a few things of interest
These two downward sloping trends are nearly parallel
But look at the trend from the Year of the SNAKE in 2013 - That trend Broke to end the 2014 Bear Market and it is the same trend to END the 2017 BULL Market
The trend from the Year of the Monkey held the Rooster and the 2018 Low as well as the Year of the Pig.
Now Nothing is official yet but if we don't trade under 3122 again, then this trend would have started the next BULL market.
Results for the Three Week Period Results for the Week of
2012 was such a joke that I avoided it altogether. The price action was incredible.
2013 Week of - 15.33% Gain 3 Weeks - 54.35% Gain
2014 Week of - 0.04% Gain 3 Weeks - -18.32% Loss
2015 Week of - 0.77% Gain 3 Weeks - 15.37% Gain
2016 Week of - 8% Gain 3 Weeks - 19% Gain
2017 Week of - -1.27% Loss 3 Weeks - 23% Gain
2018 Week of - 29.02% Gain 3 Weeks - 17.08% Gain
2019 Week of - 6.93% Gain 3 Weeks - 2.64% Gain
So it turns out that the Chinese New Year, or at least the Week of and the 3 Week period is actually usually profitable.
Only 1 year showed a loss during the week of and it was a 1.27% loss in 2017. The three week period was a 23% gain however.
For the 3 Week period, only 1 year had a loss and it was an 18.32% loss in 2014. The Week of had a tiny 0.04% Gain
The biggest Week of Gain - 2018 - 29.02% Gain
The biggest Week of Loss - 2017 - 1.27% Loss (The only Week of Loss)
The biggest 3 Week period Gain - 2013 - 54.35% Gain
The biggest 3 Week period Loss - 2014 - 18.32% Loss (The only 3 Week Loss)
1. 2015 (14 January) - Dump from 320$ to 150$, which is -50%
2. 2016 (16 January) - Dump from $460$ to $360$, which is -20%
3. 2017 (11 January) - Dump from $1120 to $770, which is -35%
4. 2018 (16 January) - Dump from 17500$ to $9700, which is -45%
5. 2019 (10 January) - Dump from 4000$ to $3500, which is -15%
6. 2020 (?)
Let's see.
ChingasX
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@diversionlulu, I like it.
I have an analysis bringing us back into the 5's likely before January ends. Based around the 200/350 DMA, initial bounce and Fib retracements.
That would certainly fall in line with your January dump theory.
The way Bitcoin moves, there is likely enough time in January for both.
espenespen
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AMAZING insight and TA!
Very helpful for people to understand the historical affect of CNY. So many believe that CNY is a cause for a big sell off. So especially after the sell off we've just experienced it's important people don't panic sell, without understanding the true fundamentals of the market. I sold out last night at 8,950, woke up annoyed I missed judged the little pump, but then the market played in my favour. So I'm personally long again.
Good luck in your trades, and please keep up your great TA's!
ChingasX
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@espenespen, Thank you. The confusion around Chinese New Year was so disturbing that I had to piece it together myself.
GainTP
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Interesting read , eyes on fractal of year 2016 Monkey!
1. 2015 (14 January) - Dump from 320$ to 150$, which is -50%
2. 2016 (16 January) - Dump from $460$ to $360$, which is -20%
3. 2017 (11 January) - Dump from $1120 to $770, which is -35%
4. 2018 (16 January) - Dump from 17500$ to $9700, which is -45%
5. 2019 (10 January) - Dump from 4000$ to $3500, which is -15%
6. 2020 (?)
Let's see.