The price is at the resistance of the downtrend. After "reset 19" after stopping the dump, a triangle was first formed, then it was reformatted into a channel in which trading was carried out with a step of the external channel of 44%; Internal 17%.
Now there is a semblance of a large "diamond" of an incomprehensible pear-shaped shape. Its edge is the line of this downtrend, the price is near this resistance zone. What is important is the breakout of this downtrend (red) and the next stage of price fixing above the 41400 level zone (local highs of this decline).
I carried out the foundation of this formation in two versions: 1) by candlesticks, the lower part is 31% (in yellow). 2) at the minima of shadows, the lower part is 44% (in blue).
A diamond is a trend reversal figure, naturally in cases of its confirmation. If this pattern is worked out is confirmed, then this entire zone of decline / accumulation / growth will be like a cup figure, I showed such a variant of the development of the price value earlier. If this diamond is launched to work out its targets, then it will be the key to launching the entire market. At least locally.
The likelihood of a false breakout should not be ruled out either. Trading is a game of probabilities. If a false breakout is made, then local work in the same channel from the zones of its levels.
May 2021 highs are the maximum values of this cycle after a "rest" of almost 4 years?
It is probably not difficult to guess that these maximum price values in May (rounded top) can hardly be the maximum values of this market cycle. Since 2017, the market has been "resting" for a very long time. You also need to understand that now there is a game with the crown that there is nothing more than a background for entering, by hook or by crook, into the digital world of total control and reducing consumption by breaking production chains. They make a "virus" what was previously achieved by war. Cryptocurrencies and BTC itself are nothing more than an advertising rag for luring people in excess of profits into the "new world".
Make an analogy with 2017.
1) 05 2017 pumping to - 2800 $ Price growth in 5 months from $ 600 to $ 2800 = 4.6X
2) 12 2017 already pumping with a stick (the final phase) for $ 20,000$.
Price growth for 5 months $ 2800 to $ 20,000 = 7.1X.
Among the public, the most optimistic forecasts for the summer of 2017 were this maximum growth to $ 5,000 at the end of the year. Many in the beginning of autumn and took profit on this $ 5,000, after 2 months a 4-fold increase in the price from the maximum values.
That from the initial start of the beginning of 2017 from $ 600 to $ 20,000 is 33.3X
Maybe this year we will see 78 or 118 thousand? Or an order of magnitude more? Will the purchasing power of $ 1 and other fiat currencies remain the same? Or will the May highs around $ 65,000 (the rounded top, this is important) be the maximum values of this cycle?
From 05.19.2021, the price is in the sideways. Tomorrow 09 07 2021. 51 days from the fall.
Trading idea published 19 05 2021
Training / work idea. Publication 20 05 2021
Comment
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Local work. The price approached the bottom of the horizontal channel. Work on a breakout or pullback after a breakdown of a downtrend (purple). Potential reversal zone.
Thanks for the analysis. I believe there is too much downward pressure still from the head and shoulder pattern in May. I also don't see any volume to support a reversal. Also, BTC has to rise above it's 50EMA on the weekly chart that it fell below yesterday. Might as well throw in the cross of death still in play.
SpartaBTC
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@works2020, let's see how it will be. Trading is a game of probabilities. You need to wait for a good entry point and not enter a trade ahead of time.
works2020
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@SpartaBTC, I’ve been shorting since the head and shoulders. I still think there’s more downside before going long.