Bitcoin BTCUSD Key break levels for this weekend

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin Weekend Update
Lost the plot overnight with Bitcoin . It lost trck of the parallels but hasn't fallen away again to the lows but instead
has made a good right shoulder at 13700 and has bounced .
That is really positive overnight price action. In the process
Bitcoinn has formed a reverse head and shoulders with the neckline at 14874 and a minimum upside measurement
implication at 18631. We've just seen Bitcoin make a head and shoulders top with a downside minimum measurement target
at 11391 (reached and exceeded by 240 odd points) - it will be interesting to see how it performs in reverse now.

Bitcoin should rally to the necxkline at 14874 and pause ...this line is now the dividing line between bears on one side and
bulls on the other. Tghus is the line in the sand that determines wheether Bitcoin has a great weekend ahead - or
a depressing one, though the bigger parallel above should also present a problem ahead once that neckline is broken to the
upside. Firstly though, Bitcoin has to break the neckline at 14874 and then it should move up to to test the parallel above
it at around 15330 now - will likely recoil on first touch of the parallel and can then come back to the neckline agin to retest
from above...must hold on that retest...then another attempt to breach the big parallel above ...and then once that's
popped and broken through it should really begin to attract buyers again, moving higher to 15814, then 17229 and on up
through the blue lines of resistance to 18631 minimum.
Downside Potential

Until the neckline is breached at 14874 Bitcoin is not out of the woods...the entire zone below here belongs to the bears
now...they will try to force price under the neckline and to keep it there, knowing this and the parallel are their last lines
of defense now. Would be better if this were France and not Russia in WW2 and the bears all ran away at the first shot.
But that looks unlikely. If flat stay that way for now and await the break or can try for a short from the neckline when
touched with stops just 50 points above - Bitcoin will remain vulnerable to tricks like this whilst unable to burst the
neckline- and the longer it goes on the more likley it will fall away again...but if so must hold onto that right hand shoulder
it's spent all night building in China at 14035 preferably and at 13500 at lowest on any declines from here...if it can do this
it's still OK/bullish intent remains strong and will then make another attempt to break the neckline. Only if 13500 is
broken will Bitcoin begin to look very vulnerable again, likely then to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin back into terrible technical trouble and likley force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324. But whilst the right hand shoulder stands firm on retests at 13500 Bitcoin is still overall positive.
Look to buy the break of the neckline when it comes and close again on the test of the parallel above - then get ready to go long again when the upper parallel is broken on the upside.
Comment: Perfect retest of the for the parallel
Comment: Bitcoin has rallied to within about 20 points of the parallel and recoiled as it should do...back to the it should do...and bounced it should do. Now for the next big test: has to break above that parallel to escape the clutches of the last bears left roaming under the parallel. Then it should be home free..follow it with stops below the parallel by at least 100 points

Comment: Bitcoin has made a second attempt on the parallel, this time touching it precisely, before recoiling once more, spiking down to 14661, below the neckline, before bouncing again. a spike is Ok (but not if it hangs around down at 14661 for long) - and shows bullish intent is still there. But the parallel is proving true now and so we have to view this battle with an open mind...which has the more power...the reverse head and shoulders or the big parallel? One so positive, the other so negative. Time will tell us the answer. If 14661 can continue to hold at lowest now the bulls will eventually win out but it 's likely to flip between here and the parallel some more yet - not a bad space for day traders with tight spreads on their side. As before at the neckline, some will try shorting from the parallel with stops above, which has worked well so far this time. And may well do again in quiet conditions, but for the rest of us we have wait. A break above the parallel should be followed on the retest, if not right on the break with stops at least 100 lower, as above comments from there.
Comment: Now on the brink and pushing up against the recent high at 15300 ...has to find buyers now to push through or will come back to parallel again where it's a buy again with stops below...slow weekend conditions means this will likely mess a little more before final break out. so long as the lowest parallel holds up this is still positive.
Comment: Bitcoin is going like a train but getting overbought ...can sell off 15800-15850 blue line and buy again lower or on break above that next line above it now at 15850...
Comment: Bitcoin has backed off and is back in the buy zone at 15288 to 15814 with stops below the lowest parallel by 50 points minimum.

Low risk long with 1800 upside and 150 down with a stop 10 under the lowest parallel
Comment: DOh. TYPO: Stops for longs from here 100 under lowest parallel
Comment: Sheesh. Slip away to watch some football and bitcoin flips from positive to negative on a dime - it shouldn't have broken the parallel to remain has and now is retesting from underside and whilst 15300 cannot be broken through to the upside again it will remain in a vulnerable postion. If still long from the breakout earlier (should have been out once the parallel broke, but maybe you missed it,) then raise stop to just under 15000 for small profit if it does turn back down from here. It really has to bust above 15300 now and hold up there to return to positive again now
Comment: Bitcoin: won't quit...although it did come off from 15300 quite hard just a few minutes after last update, Bitcoin is putting up a really good's making a flag, but in early stages so far - it could eveolve into something different over the next few hours but so far it's a flag...with 2 strikes on the lower little parallel - that shows bullish underlying intent, still - and it's now and using the neckline of the Head and Shoulders as support...bullish, again. buy dips. Only turns negative if 14465 breaks from here

Comment: If you're still with this it should pay off soon enough's still making this Bullish flag on top of the reverse head and shoulders = 18324 on break above the upper parallel of the flag. it's still bullish so far and the break is more likely to be up than down....continue to buy the dips and increase on break above the upper parallel of the flag with stops at least 100 below that line for smallish loss if wrong from here...breaking up. now...
Comment: Sorry - been trying to set up a telegram channel as TV is good but has limitations.
This has come back to test the lows - or more accurately the original clsoing point of the first short this morning...just hope all shorts were closed out bang on the blue line and if not a little a double bottom/higher low and then a 4th strike on the parallel (double clips close together count as one - at which point you know by now that the power of the parallel to repel on the 5th test is spent - and you also know to get long when that upper parallel is broken on a sucessful retest - which we have just seen - and so you will be long by now with stops under the parallel by 100 points or more for now. So you don't need me after all... if you folllowed the chart and not your heart then you are free.
Use the speed line under the lows on chart as an exit for longs
Comment: Sorry, old chart. Uptodate one here