Lost the plot overnight with Bitcoin . It lost trck of the parallels but hasn't fallen away again to the lows but instead
has made a good right shoulder at 13700 and has bounced .
That is really positive overnight price action. In the process
Bitcoinn has formed a reverse with the neckline at 14874 and a minimum upside measurement
implication at 18631. We've just seen Bitcoin make a top with a downside minimum measurement target
at 11391 (reached and exceeded by 240 odd points) - it will be interesting to see how it performs in reverse now.
Bitcoin should rally to the necxkline at 14874 and pause ...this line is now the dividing line between bears on one side and
bulls on the other. Tghus is the line in the sand that determines wheether Bitcoin has a great weekend ahead - or
a depressing one, though the bigger parallel above should also present a problem ahead once that neckline is broken to the
upside. Firstly though, Bitcoin has to break the neckline at 14874 and then it should move up to to test the parallel above
it at around 15330 now - will likely recoil on first touch of the parallel and can then come back to the neckline agin to retest
from above...must hold on that retest...then another attempt to breach the big parallel above ...and then once that's
popped and broken through it should really begin to attract buyers again, moving higher to 15814, then 17229 and on up
through the blue lines of resistance to 18631 minimum.
Until the neckline is breached at 14874 Bitcoin is not out of the woods...the entire zone below here belongs to the bears
now...they will try to force price under the neckline and to keep it there, knowing this and the parallel are their last lines
of defense now. Would be better if this were France and not Russia in WW2 and the bears all ran away at the first shot.
But that looks unlikely. If flat stay that way for now and await the break or can try for a short from the neckline when
touched with stops just 50 points above - Bitcoin will remain vulnerable to tricks like this whilst unable to burst the
neckline- and the longer it goes on the more likley it will fall away again...but if so must hold onto that right hand shoulder
it's spent all night building in China at 14035 preferably and at 13500 at lowest on any declines from here...if it can do this
it's still OK/bullish intent remains strong and will then make another attempt to break the neckline. Only if 13500 is
broken will Bitcoin begin to look very vulnerable again, likely then to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin back into terrible technical trouble and likley force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324. But whilst the right hand shoulder stands firm on retests at 13500 Bitcoin is still overall positive.
Look to buy the break of the neckline when it comes and close again on the test of the parallel above - then get ready to go long again when the upper parallel is broken on the upside.
Low risk long with 1800 upside and 150 down with a stop 10 under the lowest parallel
This has come back to test the lows - or more accurately the original clsoing point of the first short this morning...just hope all shorts were closed out bang on the blue line and if not a little higher...so a double bottom/higher low and then a 4th strike on the parallel (double clips close together count as one - at which point you know by now that the power of the parallel to repel on the 5th test is spent - and you also know to get long when that upper parallel is broken on a sucessful retest - which we have just seen - and so you will be long by now with stops under the parallel by 100 points or more for now. So you don't need me after all... if you folllowed the chart and not your heart then you are free.
Use the speed line under the lows on chart as an exit for longs