BITCOIN $150k doesn't seem so unrealistic now, does it?

Almost 4 months ago (August 14, see chart below), we made a bold prediction of a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) target at $150000 by early 2025, while the price was still at 60k:

This was received with a lot of skepticism at the time but with the price now almost on the 100k psychological barrier, the idea looks more and more realistic. It is time to revisit this chart and made some slight modifications based on the price action that was followed.

The price is now off the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci range where it consolidated from March 2024 until October 2024. The enormous rise/ break-out is attributed of course to a large extent on the U.S. elections and the euphoria that followed. We are only 1 month outside this range and the price is already much higher.

Last month's candle is very similar to November 2020 and May 2017. In comparison, that was when the most aggressive (parabolic) rallies of those Bull Cycles started. In 2017 from May to December, it was on a 71.5° angle. On the next Cycle from November 2020 to April 2021, it was on a 68.5° angle, i.e. 3° lower. If that's a progression by any means, then we can assume that the 2024 - 2025 parabolic rally could be on a 65.5° angle (-3° from the previous Cycle). That gives a potential target of 300k as early as May 2025, assuming we could have a Double Top Cycle as in 2021.

In any case, it will be interesting to see if the current Cycle also makes a blow-off top (like the last two) outside/ above the Channel Up that started back on the December 2013 High. Unrealistic as it may seem now, the 150k Target is very plausible technically as it is just below the top of that multi-year Channel Up. If the 300k blow-off top (red Arcs) comes, then all the better, but a long-term investor may consider to start taking profits while the price is inside the Channel Up and starts being cautious once we break above it in the red Arcs.

So what do you think? Do you view 150k as technically realistic as this pattern indicates? And if so, can Bitcoin even make a blow-off top near 300k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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