The last week brought much-awaited Bitcoin Spot ETF approval in the United States. However, despite the highly bullish expectations of the majority of market participants, no significant rally took place. Instead, Bitcoin has lost about 15% since its high on Thursday, which marked the day when multiple new Bitcoin ETF products started to float on the market. At the moment, Bitcoin trades near the $42,600 price tag. If it drops below the channel’s upper bound, it will bolster the bearish thesis about continuation to $39,000 and potentially even $36,000. Nevertheless, the setup we showed previously (with the short trigger coming upon a breakout below the upper bound) is significantly riskier, given the losses already made by Bitcoin (and the extent of corrections in 2023). With that said, we would like to point out that in spite of the approval of new Bitcoin ETF products (and Bitcoin Spot ETF), there is no rise in any group of Bitcoin addresses; Bitcoin addresses exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC in the balance show little to no accumulating activity. In fact, it can be argued that some of the big speculators were selling their holdings into the market’s strength. Besides that, the addresses with balances exceeding 10 BTC have continuously declined since the big rally started in mid-October 2023 (somewhat of an odd development).
Now, to address the recently asked question about whether Bitcoin can drop back to $30,000. In our opinion, it would require a strong weakness in the stock market, likely amounting to a decline of 20% or more in major indices. With a global slowdown progressing further and equities being on an incredibly powerful run in a long time, a case for strong correction remains strong. In addition to that, one could argue that the recession in Europe and deflation in China could eventually spell trouble for the United States as well. All in all, the question of such a big drop is tied to market conditions.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. In 2023, there were three major corrections in the price of Bitcoin. The one in February/March reached 22.56%, and the other two in April and July reached 20.33% and 21.68% respectively.
Illustration 1.02 The first two trading sessions were negative for iShares Bitcoin Trust and Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.
Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays an alternative upward–sloping channel. The channel’s lower bound acts as an important support. If Bitcoin breaks through it to the downside, it will slightly add to the bearish odds. Utilizing the same strategy as described in the previous setup, this channel could play a role in an alternative setup (still considered highly risky, though); a bearish trigger would get activated with the breakout below the lower bound, targeting $39,000.
Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning increasingly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Buy the history It will rise and it always has. It will fall, it always has. This will be the most significant raise in Bitcoin history. So it can fall more and it will wise more. The big question is, When do you pull the trigger? I average one trade a year in Bitcoin. I buy when the hell is beat out of it and sell when it is blasting through the fibs.
Tradersweekly
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@Hellstorm2, Alright, best of luck with your trades, and thank you very much for your comments.
Free_Loader
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“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Jefferson wrote. ” If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around(these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
december 2017 was approval for cme futures etf , november 2021 was approval for futures etf and now spot etf after last two approval we had correction around 80%
Hellstorm2
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@arvine11, What other market dynamic was taking place at those times. Let me take a look. Dec '17 was 18 months post halving, Dec '21 was also about 18 months post halving. Market dynamics, halving is part of it be honest, keep it in prospective. Cant just be negative all the time mi amigo. The difference between us, I'm an investor, you're a trader. so respect.
Hellstorm2
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@Hellstorm2, We are so far ahead of last halving because of the ETF approval scenario that it is all systems go from here. A lot of liquidity got put back on the market during this weeks roller coaster ride. Just the way they planned it. You know as well as I do, MM see who is hedging a bets and they know how to play us. Let them do their thing let us help each other to be more prosperous in 24.
Tradersweekly
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@arvine11, Thank you for the comment. Do you expect the same to happen now?
arvine11
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@Tradersweekly, because it's a spot not a future leveraging expecting a correction about 40% to 28K or 32K. main bottom was that 15600 (november 2022)