1d close 12800 and 2d close 11800 was ugly because btc was expected to reach 12500 range but to shot straight to 13900 is a very good example of fomo after which we dump straight to 10300 with 1d,2d close 11100 which also show another example of fear
wicks always happen but not that way
As i explained before we started wave 3 from 8700 with strong hidden div on 2d chart and once blue line resistance taken down btc did fly as well as i expected retrace and break on 12500 area and we got it so its time for consolidation for about a week ranging in this area
with d,2d close around 10600 to form wave 2 of general wave 3 till it break the next important blue resistance line and again it will fly
especially we already got 1hr hidden div (see previous post below)
WARNING: 10K SHOULD NOT BREACHED WITH A DAILY CLOSE AT LEAST OR EXPECT BLOOD
I will say only one wise advise for people who call me a star or i have catalyst ball or asking to teach them : price action or what i call the coin behavior in CRYPTO is whats most important not only indicators or studying but watching and observing from smallest time frame to the biggest frames for long period of time which is something i find hard to explain
I have used this title 10 jun and i was not wrong from 7800
Get in the train and ignore your fear, ATH in 1-2 month
This is not a financial advice.
Low time frame indicator always trick traders that's why we are not doing day or short term trades and we focus on higher time frames and the trend, here is another look:
We got daily close 10750 then 2d close 10500 showing btc strong above 10k level but after btc went below 10k level again we should wait for the next daily candle close but we are still bullish because indicators now went very low and gave chance to form 4hr hidden bull div we were waiting for the last couple of days which is now very clear on rsi and macd
Since we hit 13900 in Jun 26 we expected to consolidate for about a week between 10500 and 11500 level with daily close above 10k level and we got that, during this week the lowest daily close was 10600.
And we said many times 10k level should not be broken with daily close and so far this stand strong beside 4HR hidden bull div completed we can officially say now consolidation has ended and BTC is ready to resume uptrend.
I am expecting breakout to upside in anytime very soon. Watch out!
When i published this idea ( Bitcoin free fly incoming! ) before we drop from 13k level, I did explain its still incoming and retrace to 12k level is very possible and we did retraced below it as well as i said we should wait 2-3 sideway moves before shooting upside
So the idea still in process and so early to judge when dealing with 2d time frame even if we got closed below 11500 in lower timeframes but we did reverse very nice after we spotted divergences just in time before it complete and we did share with you!
I really wonder some people who asking for updates privately or in comments without even pressing like to the idea!!!
Another thing i would like to point out, look to the trend line:
Although we got lower price but in my opinion it doesn't invalidate anything yet, divergences on lower time frames most of times are complex but its a clear sign that reversal is coming.
So if we look to the daily, we can adjust the trendline and today candle close will tell us if its still valid. The pattern will turn to be a large pennant more than a triangle and both of them most of times are bullish when formed in uptrend.
The fractals on daily rsi&macd are almost completed so yea today should be the day to make it or break it. daily close below 10300 going to be very bad.
You mentioned, we've retraced only 38.2% of the whole wave from 3200 - 14000, What?!!
In a separate post i said clearly we will not find out the exact count till the waves are completed and we just try get the most possible count as waves develop according to coin behavior not just theories
Theories describe possibilities and probabilities not facts
By the way btc retraced 0.618 at 9600 forming wave 2 in 3 after wave 1 that started from 7500 to 13800
And if you referring to wave 2 that bottomed at 7500 then i am sure you missed reading this rules:
If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 and 4 are very likely to be shallow (i.e. 23.6% – 38.2%)
If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 will often end at the level of sub-wave 4 of 1 (i.e. the internal wave 4 of wave 1) which was 7500 in this case and if wave 2 was sideway shallow correction then expect wave 4 to be sharp and aggressive
Even whatever you meant by 38.2% it still valid, read this
Wave 2 generally retraces more than 30% of Wave 1 including internal data points.
Wave 2 will usually retraces less than 80% of Wave 1 .
The most likely retracement for Wave 2 is 50% or 61.8% of Wave 1.
Did you understand now what possibilities and probabilities means!!
though am not saying am absolutely correct and things will go as am saying, but by looking at your charts it shows that youre making two extended waves in this whole formation, which does not usually happens