Phi-Deltalytics

BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Key Fundamentals:

1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). For the short-term, even though institutional traders got slightly more bearish last week, the major support is still at 11k.

2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign.

3. Market Sentiment (on-chain):
Overall on-chain market sentiment is still overstretched, and a sentiment calm down is needed. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still selling in profit and remains in a bull trend. Buying the dip is simple in this type of market: wait for the price approaching seller group purchasing price à decrease in supply à increase price.

4. Margin Market Actions:
The retail margin market & retail derivative market is getting overly long.
We need an overly short sentiment to push us above 12k – similar to the mid 2019 6k break through below.

5. SPX correlation
I don’t think SPX is going to experience a major correction anytime soon. Q2 numbers didn’t cause much of a market impact. What this means is the current price level already has the negative COVID impact priced in. The market runs on expectations rather than actuals.

Key Technicals:

1. RSI:
Long-term - extremely bullish (2D, 1D)
Short-term – bearish (potentially a 1D RSI MA failure)
* 4hr RSI at 40 would be good accumulation point

2. Support/Resistance:
Key support at 10.5k – 11k.

3. Wave developments:
We are likely in wave ii of III. Details see the chart above (the bullish scenario).

Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!

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Comment: Weekly overview updated.
Retracement yes. Steep retracement (below 9k) no.
Comment: After 3 months of indecisiveness (since 10k), it seems like institutional traders have finally made up their minds that we are in a bull trend and have further upward potential.

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More on BTC long-term perspectives and August rally ahead:
https://phidelta.substack.com/p/forecast-7-relief-rally
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