Bitcoin Price Weakening or Consolidating? Bitstamp BTC/USD 1HR

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
During the last three days, price tested and re-tested support at $400 and finally reversed significantly.

More precisely, RSI has weakened, MACD has confirmed a bearish cross on the 14th, and the Stochastic has remained indecisive for more than 8 hours.

These indications are not catalytic yet as they mostly reveal that price has entered another sideways / consolidation phase before the next major move.

Nevertheless, our only concern is that each and every new spike high, has been accompanied by a negative divergence in Price / Buying Volume .

On the long side: Both MACD and Stochastic must start to show signs of strength in order to support a reversal above the 20MA ($391). This will increase the odds for retesting resistance at the Upper 200MA BB at 412.

On the short side: Price must not break the Middle 200MA BB support area at $374-$382, as this will increase the odds for revisiting the Lower 200MA BB at $337.

Overall: Mostly a weakening picture that signifies a temporary consolidation phase.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: Above $391 if accompanied by spike in volume – Price Target $414 | Probability: 30%
Neutral: Price Range $376-$390 | Probability: 50%
Short: On a break with conviction below $374 - Price Target $337 | Probability: 20%

Our Stance: Since the 13th of October, we have been very conservative regarding long exposure, as internals have not been convincing.
Sifting through all the recent BTC analysis in the last week, this has been one of a clear and concise forecast, at least based on some technical insights, rather than wild speculation.

I expect some side ways movement for a while still...

Perhaps bitcoin traders have taken their eye off the ball, as there has been so much turmoil in global equity markets, bitcoin has taken a bit of a backseat to all this action.
+2 Reply ChristopherAndrade
Thank you very much Christopher!
We try very hard to keep it simple and comprehensive.
It is true that equity markets, with their recent violent correction from the highs, have once more attracted a global attention. However, we strongly believe that the Digital Currency markets are completely autonomous entities, we see no reasonable correlation to equity indices whatsoever.
+1 Reply
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