Good morning, traders. Overnight, we saw Bitcoin fall through the bottom of the impromptu descending channel that I had drawn early in the day, but price found support at the bottom of the ascending channel that it has been in since 10/31. This same point is the horizontal support based off the previous 15 minute TR from 11/4-11/6. I have redrawn the descending channel to fit the price movement and we can see price targeting the topside of that channel. A breach of this resistance should be bullish for the pair. Based on the flagpole of the adjusted descending channel/flag, price should target the 4H R2 pivot/15 minute R3 pivot area around $6630-$6650 upon breach.
The 15 minute RSI just retreated from overbought, so we could see price drop a bit more as it continues to consolidate between the ascending channel's support and descending channel's resistance, though it is still cleanly within its ascending channel. OBV on this short TF has continued to rise and moved bullishly out of its own descending channel. The price drop overnight printed hidden bullish divergence on the 4H MACD histogram as I told everyone to watch for during the morning's live stream. The subsequent move up in price had RSI bouncing off the support level around 52/53. 4H OBV is also trending upward. I will take a look at possible EW structures during this morning's live stream and let you know what I'm watching. A drop through the bottom of the ascending channel will have me watching the 4H pivot at $6365 for support.
Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780.
OBV continues to look great on the 15 minute, 4H, and 1D charts. The 3D chart is showing OBV breaching the resistance of the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June 21st. Notice that is near the price low for this corrective cycle which came just a few days later. 3D RSI has also breached its symmetrical triangle resistance that's been printing during the same period and sits just under bullish at 49. MACD is nearing the highest point it has been since January, a breach of which should be significantly bullish for the pair.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
The 15 minute RSI just retreated from overbought, so we could see price drop a bit more as it continues to consolidate between the ascending channel's support and descending channel's resistance, though it is still cleanly within its ascending channel. OBV on this short TF has continued to rise and moved bullishly out of its own descending channel. The price drop overnight printed hidden bullish divergence on the 4H MACD histogram as I told everyone to watch for during the morning's live stream. The subsequent move up in price had RSI bouncing off the support level around 52/53. 4H OBV is also trending upward. I will take a look at possible EW structures during this morning's live stream and let you know what I'm watching. A drop through the bottom of the ascending channel will have me watching the 4H pivot at $6365 for support.
Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780.
OBV continues to look great on the 15 minute, 4H, and 1D charts. The 3D chart is showing OBV breaching the resistance of the symmetrical triangle that it has been printing since June 21st. Notice that is near the price low for this corrective cycle which came just a few days later. 3D RSI has also breached its symmetrical triangle resistance that's been printing during the same period and sits just under bullish at 49. MACD is nearing the highest point it has been since January, a breach of which should be significantly bullish for the pair.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.