Goldie

Mt Gox BTC Price Gap

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
159 0 0
Plotting the difference in price of Mt Gox BTCUSD             vs other BTC             exchanges. Could perhaps be considered a "fear index" representing the premium demanded by the market to trade on Gox. That is, for users who deposit and withdraw fiat from Gox, there is an implied concern that some negative event will befall the exchange, so those users seem to expect a higher price vs. fiat compared to other exchanges. And for the past month or so, that gap has been increasing.

If I can buy BTC             privately (or from Coinbase, etc.), transfer my coin to Gox, and then sell those BTC             on Gox for a higher price, then I make money. But because of the difficulty in getting fiat out of Gox, that trade is moot for most of us. Hence the built-in "fear." That is, I'm willing to take a risk by depositing my BTC             at Gox only if there's a chance I can withdraw a $200 premium (at today's rate) per coin.

Note: For the BTCChina comparison, I subtract the closing price on each exchange in Yuan, and then I divide the result by that day's USDCNH             exchange rate. Thus, the USD equivalent of the CNY             gap.
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