Hi all, in my constant efforts to procrastinate, I've attempted to continue to crack the code of the beast that is BTC. There are plenty more analysts who have a multitude of experience on me, but as I am an artist, I've learned that experience cannot beat out perspective. The beauty of technical analysis lies in our ability to decode patterns that others may not; every artist is given a paint brush and canvas, but no one artist will paint the same piece. Every artist is aware of a set of fundamental rules they must follow, but how those rules are applied is what makes art special. Allow me to show you all my painting.
While looking at a monthly chart of BTC the other day, I observed that the RSI is in oversold territory, which made me very excited. I began to think that we're likely close to a reversal. Upon further inspection, however, I realized that this fact simply cannot be ascertained just yet, and that is due to taking note of the 2014-2015 region. Yes, I'm aware of the Mt. Gox hack being responsible for the downspill that occurred, but I don't think that's something we should take for granted. I believe that if we attempt to utilize the charts without any fundamental knowledge at hand, we can eschew from any bias we might have- we can let the chart do all the talking.
1) During the 2014-2015 time period, we were in oversold territory for 607 days. We pulled back about 81% during this time period, with a trend reversal occurring 334 days in.
2) During the 2015-2018 time period, we were in overbought territory for 882 days.
Although we cannot confidently replicate the time period from the previous oversold cycle, I think it will act as a sufficient projection baseline for the current oversold cycle we're in. Replicating the 81% retracement point from the first oversold cycle, we could expect to see a pullback to around 2500 USD, and we could see this somewhere near February 2019. Before this downturn starts to happen, I think we're gearing up for a couple months of bullishness, followed by a 3-4 month bear market. It's possible that our proper bullish momentum will begin near the end of 2019.
I want all of you to take a moment to disregard the hype men, fundamentals, the news, really anything that will cloud your logic with emotions. This year has been tough for most, if not all the people in this market, and it's easy for us to all become intoxicated by the promise of a six figure Bitcoin, or whatever crazy figures get thrown around. It's easy for us to see a 1000 dollar impulse wave and think we're going to commence a bull run. It's easy for us to disregard everything we've studied and practiced simply because we let our emotions get the best of us. I implore you to really take a look at things beyond the surface, and really try your hardest to look at the big picture. This market doesn't have to be completely miserable, so long as you take the precautions necessary to win. Remind yourself that history repeats, and that while all these nasty dumps we've been seeing suck, a simple look at the bigger picture will show you that pull backs of around 60-80% have been happening throughout the whole history of crypto. This is nothing new, and the sooner you learn that, the sooner you will succeed. Don't let greed and FOMO hold you back, and don't let FUD scare you away. Be in the know, check your emotions, and become a winner.
While looking at a monthly chart of BTC the other day, I observed that the RSI is in oversold territory, which made me very excited. I began to think that we're likely close to a reversal. Upon further inspection, however, I realized that this fact simply cannot be ascertained just yet, and that is due to taking note of the 2014-2015 region. Yes, I'm aware of the Mt. Gox hack being responsible for the downspill that occurred, but I don't think that's something we should take for granted. I believe that if we attempt to utilize the charts without any fundamental knowledge at hand, we can eschew from any bias we might have- we can let the chart do all the talking.
1) During the 2014-2015 time period, we were in oversold territory for 607 days. We pulled back about 81% during this time period, with a trend reversal occurring 334 days in.
2) During the 2015-2018 time period, we were in overbought territory for 882 days.
Although we cannot confidently replicate the time period from the previous oversold cycle, I think it will act as a sufficient projection baseline for the current oversold cycle we're in. Replicating the 81% retracement point from the first oversold cycle, we could expect to see a pullback to around 2500 USD, and we could see this somewhere near February 2019. Before this downturn starts to happen, I think we're gearing up for a couple months of bullishness, followed by a 3-4 month bear market. It's possible that our proper bullish momentum will begin near the end of 2019.
I want all of you to take a moment to disregard the hype men, fundamentals, the news, really anything that will cloud your logic with emotions. This year has been tough for most, if not all the people in this market, and it's easy for us to all become intoxicated by the promise of a six figure Bitcoin, or whatever crazy figures get thrown around. It's easy for us to see a 1000 dollar impulse wave and think we're going to commence a bull run. It's easy for us to disregard everything we've studied and practiced simply because we let our emotions get the best of us. I implore you to really take a look at things beyond the surface, and really try your hardest to look at the big picture. This market doesn't have to be completely miserable, so long as you take the precautions necessary to win. Remind yourself that history repeats, and that while all these nasty dumps we've been seeing suck, a simple look at the bigger picture will show you that pull backs of around 60-80% have been happening throughout the whole history of crypto. This is nothing new, and the sooner you learn that, the sooner you will succeed. Don't let greed and FOMO hold you back, and don't let FUD scare you away. Be in the know, check your emotions, and become a winner.
Comment:
This appears to be playing out nicely in accordance with the fractal idea I've mentioned. We'll have to see how this month plays out.