TradingShot
Long

BITCOIN at key level. $10300 possible before the Halving.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The good news may be here. Bitcoin is close to breaking the 1W Channel Down that started with the 13800 High last June. If that happens, then a medium term bearish cycle (correction is more fitting as BTC is still at the start of the greater Bull Cycle) comes to an end and investors can start feeling more confident about accumulating again.

We shouldn't get too excited though and start calling for new All Time Highs ( ATH ) or $100000. Yet. We will indeed most likely make new ATH in the not so distant future and you know well I am a strong Bitcoin buyer long term, but right now we have levels on shorter time frames to consider.

*The President Xi Top*
By the above description I am referring of course to the peak made after China's President Xi made his remarks on Bitcoin and Blockchain technologies, which boosted BTC prices above $10300. If the Lower High trend line of the June Channel Down breaks, then Xi's peak (10350) is our Resistance level . How can we get there?

*LMACD cycle coming to a close*
Well the LMACD, our very useful indicator that provided numerous accurate buy and sell entries within the Channel Down (check at the end of this study for examples), can provide the answer. As you see at the bottom of the chart, the LMACD is close to completing a big volatile cycle that started roughly when BTC initiated the new parabolic rise, breaking out from the MA1000/1400 Buy Zone and the December 2018/ January 2019 bottom.

As you can see this LMACD cycle is quite symmetrical with the first part of the rise giving way to an equal second part of the decline (June's Channel Down). Once the Support/ Resistance levels (red and green dashed lines respectively) break, then the trend reverses. At the moment not only are we close to breaking out of the Cycle, but also crossing above the Resistance level (green line).

*Mirror fractal of 2019 Bottom and the May 2020 Halving*
So what happens after the LMACD Cycle is completed? Chances are we don't break aggressively (by that I mean above the 2019 13800 top) before Bitcoin's 3rd Halving this May. In fact, if the January - March 2019 bottom sequence is repeated inverted then it fits for a perfect touch of President Xi's 10350 peak right before the Halving.

Of course fractals are never repeated with the exact sequence, but you can't deny that so far a good deal of them has been fairly accurate.

Like the Bottoming Sequence shown below:


Notice how the 2018/19 Bottom sequence made 2 perfect touches at the bottom of the MA Buy Zone (MA1400) while the current 2019/20 Bottom sequence made 3 perfect touches at the top of the Buy Zone (MA1000).


Do you think this (breaking of Channel Down, LMACD cycle completion, 3 touches on the MA1000 etc) is enough to form a Bottom and initiate the new uptrend? Do you think we should keep a low profile until the Halving or you see new Highs sooner? Let me know in the comments section!

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* * * As mentioned above, here are some examples of the accurate signals the LMACD has provided so far:





* * * Bonus chart. This slow paced uptrend/ consolidation that I show on the current study, fits very well my 2020-end of year expectation as shown below:

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Hi how can I find the indicator on tv lmacd ? It’s not finding it when I search. Thx
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hi
a new work of mine
your opinion?
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hello) it's my new analysis. btc broke the resistance now which tells the price will continue to grow
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We know how Bitcoin can perform and how this market can surprise. So much people right now think this is just some fake rally and it has to come down again.
Or the predictions we hear are more negative or cautios then in other times when everybody is to greedy. Halving is an event which 4 years ago was not so discussed as now, people are aware.
Considering all of that i expect BTC at 15k before halving.
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I'm still thinking lower. But great analysis

+1 Reply
TradingShot Cryptonite_trader
@Cryptonite_trader, Yours too!
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Not sure about 10300$ :D at this moment but who knows anything can happen!
+1 Reply
TradingShot Cryptalion
@Cryptalion, Thanks for sharing Calion!
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