Possible path to $4500

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So now we have formed a double top and a double bottom so where do we go next? This WXYXZ elliot wave correction will only be valid if we break $6000. I see a lot of wave counts of 12345 waves down for this major CORRECTION, this is wrong unless apart of waves A or C (The 12345 impulse is only for WITH the trend NOT against). The WXYXZ pattern is apart of BTC's super cycle thus a 12345 count down is wrong as BTC's MAIN trend is still up until the green trend line is broken. Moving on.....

If BTC             breaks this double bottom at 9.4k the next immediate supports and reversal zones are:

- $8800, wave 1 high of the recent bullish swing (it is not on my chart because I don't think it will be a possible reversal zone).
- Blue region, wave 2 territory and most importantly the 2017 uptrend line we have previously bounced off as well as 0.618 fib.
- Double bottom at $6000.
- $4500, 0.786 fib.
- $2500, BTC's overall uptrend line since 2015.

I think we will likely get a dead cat bounce off of $8800 support. A key reversal zone I will be looking for is in my blue region, if it fails and the red trend line along with it we can expect blood on the streets with a fall to $6000 and possibly $4500. I don't think we will test the green trendline at least until next year. It is good to note that bounces from double bottoms and after WXYXZ patterns are usually extremely impulsive (fast), so even if one of these bearish scenarios play out I will be very bullish for April/May.

Conversely if BTC             can break above $10750 I will put these bearish scenarios on hold and update my analysis.

Please like and follow for updates and note the trend lines are in log scale.

*This is not financial advice*

Trade active: Hey guys we are approaching the major support in one of the scenarios, I think there is a good chance we can reverse from here but at the very least we will get a good bounce to play for a good trade.
Support factors:
- Golden pocket of entire rally since 2015
- Golden pocket of recent bullish swing
- 2017 rally trendline (has been supportive historically)

Also take a look at the 4H RSI it is extremely oversold and is actually about to reach support region indicated by the yellow line. A bounce from 8.2k looks good.

Comment: This ABC we are currently in is wave 2 of a higher degree with wave 1 being the rally we just had. This is an interesting personality of second waves:

" Second waves tend to retrace so much of Wave 1 that most of the profits gained are eroded. They tend to end on low volume and low volatility. In a bear market, this indicates a drying up of selling pressure. However, during Wave 2 most investors are convinced that the bear market is here to stay."
Trade active: Well done to those who went long, if we fail to break the downtrend channel again do not be disheartened as we never even reached our major suppport the bulls defended well before it. A test of 8.2k major support and a large bounce could very likely carry us out of the downtrend channel. Remember everyone is mostly bearish and btc rarely does what we are thinking.
Trade active: Trading on minor support will likely go down to the major support at 7.9-8.2k where I will look to add to my position.
Comment: Closed my short at 8420 and man, the bulls are really defending this support region above my own. Likely another dead cat bounce but this tells me there are buyers in the area and a lot of fib traders and ellioticians will be looking at the 7.9k-8.2k region to go long (myself included). We could be in wave c of the correction I will update count when I am out of the lab.
Comment: Count is a bit iffy but this is the count for my bull scenario:


We really need to bounce hard off this 8.2k region otherwise drops to 7.2k and possibly 6k become most likely outcomes.
Comment: Sub waves look decent:

Comment: Man that count got decimated quickly, here is a bullish alternate count. BTC is like always doing what we don't expect. This count is again very iffy as a truncated C after such a strong wave A seems verly unlikely to me but lets see how this plays out.
Comment: Hey guys an update on the bullish count I think it looks good, I will be looking to add to my position at 9200 if we stay within what looks like a bull flag. I don't have time to do a bearish scenario at this point in time or anything more in depth, I will try when I can.

Comment: The 9.1k-9.2k area should offer a lot of support in the short term:
- 1H 55 EMA
- Downtrend line turned support
-Daily 200 EMA
Comment: This is the bearish count, I am still neutral but we really need to break above 9200 at least for me not to form a bearish bias.

Trade active: Sorry for the lack of updates I have been quite busy, we bounced off 7.9k nicely although momentum doesn't seem to be following up. Taking a partial profit between 8.2-8.3k wouldn't go amiss in my opinion.
Comment: Sub waves of wave C. 2.618 extension of waves 1 and 2 is at 6500, this also coincides with a 1:1 extension of wave A into C.
thanks for sharing update .
@almiftahdz, No problem thanks for the feedback.
Thanks for the updates!
Appreciate following an idea over time!
+1 Reply
HyperionAllied PRO EspressoDopio
@EspressoDopio, No problem thankyou for the comment :)
Finally someone making a TA with neutrality! That is all we need, up to us to decide if we will go long or short. Really tired of people being super bullish or bearish and then changing their minds every day. I’ve been long during this whole correction and reloading more at the bottoms, hopefully my long strategy works. Thanks for your time and analysis :)
+1 Reply
@Poukitoun, Thankyou very much for the comment your feedback is much appreciated. My thoughts exactly just want to tackle it at one support or resistance level at a time. Strategy looking very good at the moment. Happy trading :)
Poukitoun PRO HyperionAllied
@HyperionAllied, You are welcome! You have earned a new subscriber :) TA is quite difficult in the long time frames at the moment but when you have banks like Golman Sachs buying an exchange for $400 million (Poloniex) then you can be sure Bitcoin has a bright future in the short term. These sharks would be the last to invest in crypto if there wasn't a real incentive. A 50% market correction seems to be fair to keep good levels of sanity while keeping public confidence in the market. No reason to go super bullish right away too, dust needs to settle for a bit.
I don't see any reasons to go further down at this point, 6k was the entry point for institutional money, the general public will get in at 14k or beyond as usual.
I think we are heading back up slowly. I could be wrong though. This would be the time for BTC to kick in too as quite a few alts are on the verge of total collapse.
On a short time frame RSI is not too bad sitting at 42, previous rally to 11,7K started at RSI 50. RSI seems slightly weaker than previous wave for the same price level though. Seems like the previous two rallies to 11.6k found support above the MA200 so we might want to reach towards it again. I think we currently experienced correction ABC of wave two and we should start wave 3 that will bring us above 12k. This would then confirm our iH&S and expect wave 5 to reach 16-17k range :) I mostly do swing trading between two fav coins that are not in sync (GNT and LBC) and I have been long since BTC was 7K last year, I have doubled my satoshis during the downtrend and I keep buying the lows :)
+1 Reply
@Poukitoun, seems like a repeat of 2017 to me haha, institutional money at 3k and public at 15k. My thoughts exactly wall street is already in, I doubt they will let btc do what every trader and investor thinks at the moment and let them get cheap btc at 4.5k or less. Better for a reversal at a low probability point to liquidate the greedy shorters. What I would do basically haha.
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