Previous analysis/position: Expecting a bounce from $7,650 to retest $8,000 and then strongly expected the drawdown to continue from there. Short ETH:USD from $450.
Patterns: Lower high appears to be established at $8,500.
Horizontal support and resistance: $7,500 support becoming resistance?
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulled back sharply from 21,377 resistance. Will they refuel at 18,000 support? 61% long indicates long liquidations haven’t really started yet. Expect many stop losses to be at $6,800 - $7,250.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.54% | 26 = being tested for support | Both are starting to angle down.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +9.26% | 128 = being tested for support
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677
Candlestick analysis: Long wick on top of monthly closed it inside the trendline. Daily hanging man preceded sell off.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of cloud = $7,078 which is roughly in line with the top of the 12 hour cloud. Bearish TK cross on 4h.
TD’ Sequential: Daily R-2 < R-1 is providing short sale entry |
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $7,536 | POC over last 5d = $8,170 | POC over last year = $8,050
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.58% | 24h = -3.35% | 1w = -8.21% | 2w = +/- 0 | 1m = +17.35%
Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA for support.
Trendline: Retesting trendline that was broken on July 23rd.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: UP = $8,288 | DOWN = $7,207
On Balance Volume: Coming down w price
ADX: +DI and - DI are getting ready to make bearish cross with ADX > 25 indicates upcoming bear trend.
Chaikin Money Flow: Below 0.05 | Will it establish another higher low?
RSI: Threatening to cross below 50 and daily and just fell below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Dumping on the daily. Still healthy on weekly.
Conclusion: It appears like the price has fallen through another level of support without getting a bounce. That means bears are getting confident and bulls are becoming skittish. Red 2 below a red 1 is providing a short entry but we are still at what I’m viewing as an area of support. Anywhere from $7,250 - $7,500 could provide a bounce to $7,800 - $8,000. If you do enter a position right now then I would still put the stop above that area. I still believe that ETH is offering a better opportunity to short, click here for my analysis on it.
Patterns: Lower high appears to be established at $8,500.
Horizontal support and resistance: $7,500 support becoming resistance?
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulled back sharply from 21,377 resistance. Will they refuel at 18,000 support? 61% long indicates long liquidations haven’t really started yet. Expect many stop losses to be at $6,800 - $7,250.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.54% | 26 = being tested for support | Both are starting to angle down.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +9.26% | 128 = being tested for support
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677
Candlestick analysis: Long wick on top of monthly closed it inside the trendline. Daily hanging man preceded sell off.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of cloud = $7,078 which is roughly in line with the top of the 12 hour cloud. Bearish TK cross on 4h.
TD’ Sequential: Daily R-2 < R-1 is providing short sale entry |
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $7,536 | POC over last 5d = $8,170 | POC over last year = $8,050
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.58% | 24h = -3.35% | 1w = -8.21% | 2w = +/- 0 | 1m = +17.35%
Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA for support.
Trendline: Retesting trendline that was broken on July 23rd.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: UP = $8,288 | DOWN = $7,207
On Balance Volume: Coming down w price
ADX: +DI and - DI are getting ready to make bearish cross with ADX > 25 indicates upcoming bear trend.
Chaikin Money Flow: Below 0.05 | Will it establish another higher low?
RSI: Threatening to cross below 50 and daily and just fell below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Dumping on the daily. Still healthy on weekly.
Conclusion: It appears like the price has fallen through another level of support without getting a bounce. That means bears are getting confident and bulls are becoming skittish. Red 2 below a red 1 is providing a short entry but we are still at what I’m viewing as an area of support. Anywhere from $7,250 - $7,500 could provide a bounce to $7,800 - $8,000. If you do enter a position right now then I would still put the stop above that area. I still believe that ETH is offering a better opportunity to short, click here for my analysis on it.
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