So we got the rally from 6300 - the 6312 level has been constantly mentioned recently as a minimum downside target.
And it so happens that 6301 is 20% exactly from the high, a text-book retracement. So am thinking that we need to pay it
a little more respect next time we visit it, when this little counter rally ends and try to lay out possible scenarios to
watch out for that might tell us when the down-wave is finished: it's struggling to move above 6560 as this is
written...so not much more upside now, limited at tops by the middle parallel - before it comes off again. Then comes
the next big test for Bitcoin: 6300 must hold, creating a loss of downward momentum and a , with another
on the 1 hour chart, ideally. And then start studding 6300 with bottoms over the next 3 or 4 hours if things
stay pretty dead, like now. Then it needs to make an intermediate at 6300 in a fews hours' time,
when it gets knocked back from the parallel on the first test, most likely. And then, the second, confirming signal will be
issued when Bitcoin manages to break back above the upper parallel and to hold up there on the first retest. That would
be the confirming sign that selling pressure is finally over - don't think it is but the chart decides this, not me, more's the pity.
Long story short: 6300 deserves a little more respect than it's been given in last post. We look for signs of a potential loss of
downward momentum there ... but it's still touch and go...the only other way out of this jam is for Bitcoin to hold up off the
medium term dynamic on the next decline and start tracking sideways towards the parallel to its right (on chart)...it's possble
- still think that any encounters with the centre parallel will be met with rejection - so swing traders are advised to stay short
with stops above 6630 - and if we do see a low made at 6300 and then see the upper parallel broken to upside it's time to get
long on next pullback towards the same parallel. Don't think this looks over yet, though - and won't unless we price action similar
to that just described.
Otherwise, stay short for test of the lower parallel once 6300 gives way.