Bitcoin playing the inverse H&S to 14K or failure to 9K
Past days i have been showing in my channel that we are very likely at an important stage. It's either a continuation of the rally (which i think is too soon, but the would fit the parabolic movement and madness of the past 2 months, i mean, it's Bitcoin :) ). A better, healthier scenario would be to make a much bigger consolidation (in time) coming period before we move up again. As always, can go both ways, but i will explain my thoughts a bit in this in another post.
For now, we the bearish wedge in the middle that i posted yesterday in my channel. So far, the target has not been reached (which is around 10800/11000). At the moment it's a 50 yard line. The move up today can still easily be just a retest of the wedge but can also be a higher low that has been formed and we continue to move up. On the left i have drawn 3 lines.
1, Red): This move up to 11400/500 is just a retest and we continue to go down (and likely much lower if we break 10.800ish.
2, Black): We have formed a higher low and we going to break up, maybe even above the 12k. But the rally will be with low volume (maybe somewhere around the black circle at the volume candles). So no big conviction of the bull in volume and speed of price increase.
3, Blue): We will see a very strong and high volume break up through the 11700/12k. So seeing a lot of conviction of the bulls. But to be clear, not a short squeeze though. So not like a 300/500 point move up in seconds. But rallies like we saw from the 8K to 13K.
As long as we stay below the 11500/50, scenario 1 is still most likely to me. It would be better and healthier as well to see a bigger correction from the rally to the 13k's.
Now that shape we see on the left, can also be seen as a big inverse H&S with the neckline around 11700/600 at the moment. These kind of H&S at these positions, are extremely unreliable. This is the reason why i have drawn the blue and black version. Because even if it breaks up, without a big rally and high volume, chances will remain like 75% that it will fail at some point. The target of the H&S is around the 2019 high.
If we do get a bearish scenario, at this point it's still too premature to say the market will enter a bear trend again for rest of 2019. So even if we drop, i won't become a real bear as long as we stay above the 9K. We could maybe even say, above the 7500ish (where the insane rally started) is probably the zone between bear and bull market.
I think:
Between 11250 and 11450 it's a clear 50/50
Below 11250 55/45 bears
Below 11.000 60/40 bears
below 10800 65/35 bears
Above 11450 55/45 bulls
Above 11550 still 55/45 bulls
Above 11700 60/40 bulls
Above 12k 65/35 bulls
I think a move down is more likely, but that will change to more neutral above the 11450/550.
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Previous analysis:
For now, we the bearish wedge in the middle that i posted yesterday in my channel. So far, the target has not been reached (which is around 10800/11000). At the moment it's a 50 yard line. The move up today can still easily be just a retest of the wedge but can also be a higher low that has been formed and we continue to move up. On the left i have drawn 3 lines.
1, Red): This move up to 11400/500 is just a retest and we continue to go down (and likely much lower if we break 10.800ish.
2, Black): We have formed a higher low and we going to break up, maybe even above the 12k. But the rally will be with low volume (maybe somewhere around the black circle at the volume candles). So no big conviction of the bull in volume and speed of price increase.
3, Blue): We will see a very strong and high volume break up through the 11700/12k. So seeing a lot of conviction of the bulls. But to be clear, not a short squeeze though. So not like a 300/500 point move up in seconds. But rallies like we saw from the 8K to 13K.
As long as we stay below the 11500/50, scenario 1 is still most likely to me. It would be better and healthier as well to see a bigger correction from the rally to the 13k's.
Now that shape we see on the left, can also be seen as a big inverse H&S with the neckline around 11700/600 at the moment. These kind of H&S at these positions, are extremely unreliable. This is the reason why i have drawn the blue and black version. Because even if it breaks up, without a big rally and high volume, chances will remain like 75% that it will fail at some point. The target of the H&S is around the 2019 high.
If we do get a bearish scenario, at this point it's still too premature to say the market will enter a bear trend again for rest of 2019. So even if we drop, i won't become a real bear as long as we stay above the 9K. We could maybe even say, above the 7500ish (where the insane rally started) is probably the zone between bear and bull market.
I think:
Between 11250 and 11450 it's a clear 50/50
Below 11250 55/45 bears
Below 11.000 60/40 bears
below 10800 65/35 bears
Above 11450 55/45 bulls
Above 11550 still 55/45 bulls
Above 11700 60/40 bulls
Above 12k 65/35 bulls
I think a move down is more likely, but that will change to more neutral above the 11450/550.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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Educational post Bitcoin:
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Made a drop and at a big support zone now. The 11k is a big support itself and that triangle support line as well now. Strange things though, ETH has a similar triangle, that one really looks like it want's to break up, while bitcoin is showing the exact opposite.
For this bearish attempt to stay real, it should stay below the 11300ish from now on. If it breaks, we could see another attempt to break up. If we break the 11450ish, it will become even more likely to go higher.
For this bearish attempt to stay real, it should stay below the 11300ish from now on. If it breaks, we could see another attempt to break up. If we break the 11450ish, it will become even more likely to go higher.
Comment:
Okay, pump coming out of nowhere, making it likely that the drop we just had was a small bear trap. Resistance still not broken, so could all just be some weekend shake outs.
At the 11400, just when it started to drop, i saw several very big market sells. Which felt a bit out of the ordinary for a Sunday and the small move we had. But i didn't think much of it. But now, just at the start before the squeeze happened, same thing on the other side. Several orders of 4 to 9 mil. So they are either just playing the range, selling high, taking profit, buy low, then pump, then sell high and repeat maybe. Or they trapped bears, accumulated at the 11100/200 and are ready to move higher.
Previous update i posted the wrong chart, should have been this one.
At the 11400, just when it started to drop, i saw several very big market sells. Which felt a bit out of the ordinary for a Sunday and the small move we had. But i didn't think much of it. But now, just at the start before the squeeze happened, same thing on the other side. Several orders of 4 to 9 mil. So they are either just playing the range, selling high, taking profit, buy low, then pump, then sell high and repeat maybe. Or they trapped bears, accumulated at the 11100/200 and are ready to move higher.
Previous update i posted the wrong chart, should have been this one.
Comment:
Seems like a real fight at the moment. The resistance of that inverse H&S. The triangle already broke, but when drawing the line a bit differently it might still be in it. If it did break already, than the breakout is weak so far.
Volume is good at the moment, since it's still below the big resistance of 11700/12k, we don't need to see that big volume yet i mentioned in the analysis. But when it does break that zone, we really need to see it at some point.
Bears are pushing but the bulls seem to be too strong. Until now, since we have no big rejection yet, think we can assume that drop earlier today was a bear trap.
We had several traps on both sides now past days in this 10800/12k zone. So until we really break it, the chances remain for each attempt within the zone being a trap.
Just look at ETH, that ascending triangle it made past days. Broke up just to make a bull trap, then broke down just to make a bear trap and in the meantime creating a bigger triangle.
At the moment for Bitcoin, only bearish thing i can say, is a fast volume drop below the 11460/20. Anything less, should be considered as a pullback for the bulls.
Volume is good at the moment, since it's still below the big resistance of 11700/12k, we don't need to see that big volume yet i mentioned in the analysis. But when it does break that zone, we really need to see it at some point.
Bears are pushing but the bulls seem to be too strong. Until now, since we have no big rejection yet, think we can assume that drop earlier today was a bear trap.
We had several traps on both sides now past days in this 10800/12k zone. So until we really break it, the chances remain for each attempt within the zone being a trap.
Just look at ETH, that ascending triangle it made past days. Broke up just to make a bull trap, then broke down just to make a bear trap and in the meantime creating a bigger triangle.
At the moment for Bitcoin, only bearish thing i can say, is a fast volume drop below the 11460/20. Anything less, should be considered as a pullback for the bulls.
Comment:
Still a lot of noise going on here, some strange big buys and sells. As i mentioned in a previous update, saw the same big sells with that drop from 11520 to 11340. So clearly some games are being played here, just don't know if it's just range that is being played or these people are setting up for the coming week.
Only sensible thing i can say now is, if we stay inside of that bull flag zone in the middle, the longer it takes, the bigger the chances we will break up. I say bull flag zone, because i don't like the shape of it all, but on higher time frame it's there. On the right we can see a channel as well. As long as it moves stable inside of it, so not breaking downwards, also in favor of the bulls. A break of this channel could mean the flag in the middle might break up as well.
On the left we can see price is still very close to the resistance. The longer bumps against it, the bigger the odds the bull have. This whole weekend has been about fake moves, frustrating bulls and bears. So be careful, whatever side you choose. Last update for now, be back tomorrow again. Good luck :)
Only sensible thing i can say now is, if we stay inside of that bull flag zone in the middle, the longer it takes, the bigger the chances we will break up. I say bull flag zone, because i don't like the shape of it all, but on higher time frame it's there. On the right we can see a channel as well. As long as it moves stable inside of it, so not breaking downwards, also in favor of the bulls. A break of this channel could mean the flag in the middle might break up as well.
On the left we can see price is still very close to the resistance. The longer bumps against it, the bigger the odds the bull have. This whole weekend has been about fake moves, frustrating bulls and bears. So be careful, whatever side you choose. Last update for now, be back tomorrow again. Good luck :)
Comment:
The bull flags played out eventually and we just a push up. But it's an almost obvious short squeeze, which is never good. During the rally to 13k, most pushes were real fights between bears and bulls, almost no short squeezes going on. So a short squeeze is never a good foundation to have. Doesn't mean it will drop right away. But it usually does mean, that price needs to hold it's ground.
For example, now it needs to hold the small bull flag on the right. So staying above 11800ish. If that attempt fails, it might get dangerous again for the bulls. The triangle broke and has a target around 12500. We are still below the 12k though, which is still a big resistance AND the volume on this breakup is still not great. That is because it was a short squeeze.
Also, when looking at ETH, was super strong yesterday, now it failed to even break that channel. So only way it might break it, is probably through some stable sideways action coming day or 2. That's what usually happens in a setup like this.
So if btc is able to make a good flag coming minutes to hours close to the 12k, bigger the chances will be it will break eventually. I would still be careful though, because of the low volume, the black line version is the one i am following now. Because of the low volume and the short squeeze, it's the most likely version for me. Unless we see things change coming day or 2.
Because even though a short squeeze is in general a temp move, sometimes it's the start of a big move as well. I prefer the more cautious approach, so the black line is what i look at for now
For example, now it needs to hold the small bull flag on the right. So staying above 11800ish. If that attempt fails, it might get dangerous again for the bulls. The triangle broke and has a target around 12500. We are still below the 12k though, which is still a big resistance AND the volume on this breakup is still not great. That is because it was a short squeeze.
Also, when looking at ETH, was super strong yesterday, now it failed to even break that channel. So only way it might break it, is probably through some stable sideways action coming day or 2. That's what usually happens in a setup like this.
So if btc is able to make a good flag coming minutes to hours close to the 12k, bigger the chances will be it will break eventually. I would still be careful though, because of the low volume, the black line version is the one i am following now. Because of the low volume and the short squeeze, it's the most likely version for me. Unless we see things change coming day or 2.
Because even though a short squeeze is in general a temp move, sometimes it's the start of a big move as well. I prefer the more cautious approach, so the black line is what i look at for now
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Extra Bitcoin ATH fractal analysis:
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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