What's up everyone? It's time for a long overdue look at Bitcoin! There hasn't been much to report on, since BTC has performed pretty much as I had anticipated in my last post. If you recall, I wrote "BTC is likely to chop around inside of this triangle, possibly into November, before we actually see it break in one direction or the other." That's pretty much what's been happening. The volatility has been extremely low, mostly because there hasn't been a catalyst of any sort in the market. However, that doesn't mean that there aren't any interesting technicals to review, so let's get to it!
Looking at the daily chart, you can see that BTC has been continuously suppressed by the 50 EMA (in orange.) In fact, the 50 EMA has been acting like a brick wall that BTC just can't seem to get above. As a testament to the extreme resistance of the 50 and 200 EMA's, let's take a look at the candle that broke out above the triangle. I've marked it as a "Failed Breakout," because BTC rallied all the way above the 200 EMA (in purple) but failed to close there, reversing to form a big inverted hammer. Since then, BTC hasn't even been able to close inside of the wick of the hammer candle (Distribution Zone,) and it has drifted back below the 50 EMA. So, this action is showing us where the sellers are (Distribution Zone.) Despite a technical breakout above the symmetrical triangle, the bulls are basically nonexistent. There hasn't been any follow-through. No volume. No momentum. It's basically a lifeless breakout. However, all is not lost for the bulls. We can also see that BTC is holding the top of the descending triangle. So, perhaps BTC will find support there, and begin to trade higher, but the bulls really need to show some interest, because if the buyers don't buy, the sellers WILL sell.
The forward path is clear. If BTC begins to creep into the distribution zone, and ESPECIALLY if it closes above the distribution zone, that would be a very positive sign for the bulls. Contrarily, a break back into the apex, below the triangle and the rising black trendline, would be catastrophic for the crypto space. That would pretty much confirm the breakdown of the symmetrical triangle, solidifying lower prices for the future. Remember, descending triangles are bearish continuation patterns, which typically produce continuations to the downside. We've seen a weak breakout, which could easily be erased. So, exercise caution with your trades.
As a final note, I think it's healthy to remind you all to be cautious of extreme bullish sentiment. I've seen so many articles claiming that 5,000 percent gains are right around the corner and so forth, but without even as much as a higher high on the chart, and in the midst of a devastating bear market, such claims are extremely foolish at best. So relax. Let the chart show us what it's going to do. When we start seeing some higher highs, then we can discuss a reversal in the market trend. Until then, there is no reason to assume that we won't continue lower. I wish you all the best.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
MPC is here. A strong bounce right after this post was published, which produced a higher low.
Thanks for the signal.
Namaste.