Hey guys,
As we can see here, we are resting on the bottom of a 15-month old trend channel. This has proven to be a trustworthy entry point in the past and $8000 is also the 61.8% retracement level of February 6th's spike. Still one more factor, we are resting right now on a previously broken resistance level, which usually then acts as support. For fans of candlesticks, if you zoom into the current dip, you will find a bullish hammer.
Indicators are showing a nice setup here too with the daily Stochastic oversold, hopefully signalling that the bearish divergence it forecast is now over. RSI is similar, having jumped from being oversold on February 6th, and now resting low around the 30's, possibly forming a nice failure swing. MACD is relatively neutral: pointing down, but gently. A turnaround in the next few days would give us further confirmation to go long, and a bullish cross over the zero line is the goal here.
Obviously, with the trend ceiling looming over us, there's still a high chance that we could fall out of the channel, so I will be setting my stop loss around $6850 to allow for a small fakeout. With that in mind, here are my long-term, somewhat ambitious targets:
1st: $9730 (Risk vs stop loss: 1.6)
Here is the most recent swing high and the bearish trend ceiling. It would be foolish not to take some profits here, and adjust the stop loss to break even.
2nd: $11,300 (3)
Here is the next swing high, also the site of the recent bearish divergence on the daily Stoch, where we formed a telltale double top. It also happens to be the 38.2% retracement zone of the fall from ATH to February's low.
3rd: $13,600 (5.1)
Mostly an area to take profits to bridge the gap between the other targets. Measured by adding the height of the last rally to the bottom of this dip.
4th: $17,200 (8.4)
An incredibly ambitious target, here is the lower peak from December as well as the top of the channel and the 161.8% Fibonacci level of early February's rally. Here would be the last time to take profits, though if we reach it I will be surprised!
Here's hoping we're back to bullish!
-----
As always, this isn't investment advice etc etc, I am just a guy with 4 charts who does this recently for fun!
As we can see here, we are resting on the bottom of a 15-month old trend channel. This has proven to be a trustworthy entry point in the past and $8000 is also the 61.8% retracement level of February 6th's spike. Still one more factor, we are resting right now on a previously broken resistance level, which usually then acts as support. For fans of candlesticks, if you zoom into the current dip, you will find a bullish hammer.
Indicators are showing a nice setup here too with the daily Stochastic oversold, hopefully signalling that the bearish divergence it forecast is now over. RSI is similar, having jumped from being oversold on February 6th, and now resting low around the 30's, possibly forming a nice failure swing. MACD is relatively neutral: pointing down, but gently. A turnaround in the next few days would give us further confirmation to go long, and a bullish cross over the zero line is the goal here.
Obviously, with the trend ceiling looming over us, there's still a high chance that we could fall out of the channel, so I will be setting my stop loss around $6850 to allow for a small fakeout. With that in mind, here are my long-term, somewhat ambitious targets:
1st: $9730 (Risk vs stop loss: 1.6)
Here is the most recent swing high and the bearish trend ceiling. It would be foolish not to take some profits here, and adjust the stop loss to break even.
2nd: $11,300 (3)
Here is the next swing high, also the site of the recent bearish divergence on the daily Stoch, where we formed a telltale double top. It also happens to be the 38.2% retracement zone of the fall from ATH to February's low.
3rd: $13,600 (5.1)
Mostly an area to take profits to bridge the gap between the other targets. Measured by adding the height of the last rally to the bottom of this dip.
4th: $17,200 (8.4)
An incredibly ambitious target, here is the lower peak from December as well as the top of the channel and the 161.8% Fibonacci level of early February's rally. Here would be the last time to take profits, though if we reach it I will be surprised!
Here's hoping we're back to bullish!
-----
As always, this isn't investment advice etc etc, I am just a guy with 4 charts who does this recently for fun!