A quick update ... there are different possible interpretations when it comes to EW. The short summary ... (1) did we have an ABC correction up from 7040 (black wave)? (2) or did we have an ABCDE leading diagonal up from 7040 (purple wave)?
Thing is, selecting one or the other decides when the impulse down started ... and the projected bottom (in the short term), is very much dependent on that choice!
The purple wave suggests this is FAR from over ... and alts will be jumping off cliffs soon, as BTC goes to 5.4k or even lower. In this scenario I do expect a quick, massive wick down, as many longs liquidate ... then a proper recovery. I can't tell you where that ends ... I see possible stops at 5.4k, 5k, 4.4k, 4k .... all the way down to around 2.9k. Don't freak out though ... I really do expect this to be quick, so if you are protected by stops ...
The black wave suggests the correction is over (for now) ... and we go up from 7370, close to my original target of 7425 (see this idea tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AooSrJTO-BTC-a-glimpse-of-the-bottom/). This scenario then leads to a mediocre recovery, then another attempt to hit bottom, and I suspect that one would succeed. Again, I see this ending with that massive wick down, creating a V shaped bottom.
We will know soon enough. Watch volume especially, and alt action (are they really recovering in a healthy manner)? Those are clues, they always have been.
Please comment which way you think it will go ... BLACK WAVE or PURPLE WAVE
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions with this information ... for educational purposes only!
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I also want to mention that wave 5 might not be over. In my previous idea ... I had this extending down to possibly 6k ... but breaking that will likely go into the purple wave option.
More likely we heading down (PURPLE)! At the moment we have pretty important time - could we can break strong area and round number $7500 which works as a resistance right now!
We had several attempts already and all those are quickly sell off again! But let's see!
I also update BTC price movements...
MAGICMARK
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@VaidoVeek, so far purple is the winner ... I longed at the low yesterday, to take profit on this wave up. I can see potentially reaching 6800 ... 7000?? Above that, we could start persuading some bears to change their tone ... and that could put us on the black wave. Let's see. By the way, this dip is natural profit taking and early shorters trying to get in. We have touched the bottom of the channel, so this wave up is still valid. Can I suggest that you line up your blue lines to the 3 bottoms (exclude 6100 wick, start at next bottom at 02:15 yesterday 64XX) ... and the 2 tops ... you'll see it's a parallel channel.
Supertraderboy
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I think its going to 4800 and could go lower after a break .Its a tough call but there is most likely more downside now .I expect a very big upswing soon so Im holding what I have and buying more in case im off by thousands ill still be in the game. I expect some bouncing around. Layering.
@Supertraderboy, when you say next lower levels ... do you mean at 4XXX, or maybe at a 6k bounce?
Supertraderboy
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@MAGICMARK, I am waiting below 5000. My reasoning is this is supposed to take off within a month. I wont buy all at once i will buy 5 or 10 percent of what i have in available cash at a time and wait . Calling the bottom will be impossible. Im just trying to get close and buy a little at and above the low if im lucky.It is supposed to rocket so if it hits at 4000 and goes to 50000 or 100000 you wont miss much by layering in even up to 10000.
MAGICMARK
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Thanks for clarifying.
FritzWagner
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hannynaibaho
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Hi. Can u explain "Watch volume especially, and alt action (are they really recovering in a healthy manner)? ". Thank you
MAGICMARK
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@hannynaibaho, hello. Thanks for your question. On a bounce, I expect real increase in volume ... organic buyers. What we see right now when bitcoin drops is that the volume spikes ... but likely mostly due to long profit at first and then long liquidations. When the price spikes up ... it's likely mostly shorts covering and some short liquidations. If the market truly believes we have reversed into a bull market ... we should see follow up in volume, not back to the same pathetic volumes we've had for weeks. Yes, volume will die off at key resistance ... but once those levels are broken ... there should be follow up volume ... compare to April 2018 volumes ... we are basically at the same place right now. Lack of buying volume means the general sentiment is still bearish ... so the purple wave will dominate.
As for alts ... some alts are like the "canary in the coal mine." Not sure if you've heard of that ... but they show signs of weakness just BEFORE bitcoin tanks ... ETH is a great example (I posted an idea on this before ... look it up). On the other hand, they also BLOOM when BTC is bullish ... as if they have freedom to do what they want. If they are closely coupled to the BTC price (go up and down only or predominantly with BTC moves), the market is still bearish.
We had several attempts already and all those are quickly sell off again! But let's see!
I also update BTC price movements...