In summary, MY Strong opinion weakly held (as a wise trader says): Near to the Bottom
-Too many strong levels to beat to the downside. -Economy bubble (Druckenmiller comments summarize this well) -Stock to Flow model: solid model always beating opinions
Bear case: measuring the environment´s hype badly? Chart NOT looking as sexy as you would want.
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COULD BE A REACCUMULATION
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Flush was HARD AF. A bit further than projected (blue).
If bulls are still living, we should see a reclaim and hold of 40k soon.
Another scenario is that we will have another additional supply test downward (they´ll try to squeeze the lemon hard), but hopefully not.
Lots of stubborn shorts in the market? probably yes, probably a great squeeze could happen to the upside. (my inclination as per today)
Leverage has been the MOFO killer of both bulls and bears this market.
Play safe, rebalance size to a "sleep well level".