Bitcoin definitely has some work to put in before we can comfortably and realistically say we are back in a bull market.
A rejection on/around the 20 EMA area (Blue line) is the most likely scenario in my eyes + we have bitcoin forming the mother of all H&S right now so there is a possibility that could play out to the downside, If that happens we could be in for a swift and steep drop down to the 24k/23k level.
A break out above this level however would be amazing for the bullish outlook of bitcoin I just feel judging the current price action we have it's definitely less likely of the two scenarios. Let's wait and see, it's super important to be realistic with your market analysis and not to be married to one outcome. Be open-minded.
Excellent analysis, I completely agree with you. Overall I am still long term bullish, however as things stand I would slightly favour one leg lower toward 20 - 24k.
I'm also still in the camp of ATH by year end 80 - 100k.
DutchyFX
⋅
@trader1878 Yh it’s just looking ever more bearish as the days go on 🤷🏻♂️ I just hope if this is a bear market now it can be done with quickly as there are 2 ways this can go.
1. Everyone accepts the bear market. We see a swift fall taking only 1,2 months down to the 20k levels, we then see a fast accumulation phase of the discounted coins and then ATH by December early Jan 2022. 👍🏼
2. A slow and drawn out drop down to the 20k area with some very large pull backs as bulls don’t accept the bear market, this would then result in a descent taking much much longer... Upwards of 5 months I’d say before we hit the reversal level. 👎🏼
I know which scenario I want, if this is a confirmed bear market the quicker we hit 24k/20k the better😂 whatever happens Bitcoin and crypto are gearing up for a massive 2022.
Full and excellent explanation, I completely agree with you based on the fact that bitcoin and gold have a lot of convergence, and gold is likely to fall more. Bitcoin and gold will probably be declining in the short term, but in the long run they will definitely grow significantly.
DutchyFX
⋅
@mahdisoltaninjad, Definitely the longer-term bias is 100% super bullish for BTC but we have to trade what we see and stay neutral as that's the key to not getting wrecked. But yeah I'd agree bitcoin + gold due to the convergence and current PA are likely heading lower but let's let the market show its hand.
BallaJi
⋅
I'm MARRIED to BTC hitting 88K ;)
haha good work mate
DutchyFX
⋅
@BallaJi and the rest 🤩 Bitcoin is going to be worth a lot more than 88k but for the short term/medium term we have to keep a neutral mindset and take what we see 🤷🏻♂️
I'm also still in the camp of ATH by year end 80 - 100k.