Hi everyone, Domic here!
This week, the market has provided enough support for Bitcoin to recover, but not enough of a catalyst for a true breakout. The Fed’s 0.25% rate cut continues to favor risk assets, yet investors remain cautious ahead of the December 16 Nonfarm Payrolls report. If labor data weakens, expectations for further rate cuts will rise — a direct tailwind for BTC. On the other hand, an overly strong report could trigger selling near dynamic resistance zones such as the EMA34.
On the news side, the crypto market is lacking major catalysts: no new ETFs, no sudden inflows, and no events on the scale of a halving. Because of that, BTC’s current recovery is driven more by technical factors than by news.
Technically, BTC has bounced from the 86,000–88,000 zone with a clear set of bullish signals: long lower wicks, improving volume, and solid absorption of selling pressure. Price is now testing the EMA34 around 93,846 — a level where BTC has been rejected multiple times since October. This is a crucial “checkpoint,” and if price closes above it on the daily chart, the trend structure will shift significantly. The next target would be the EMA89 near 101,023 — considered the final line of defense for the long-term downtrend. A breakout above EMA89 would almost confirm a new bullish cycle.
In the main scenario, I expect BTC to face mild rejection at the EMA34 and pull back to the 90,500–91,500 zone to gather liquidity before attempting another push. If buyers defend this area well, BTC could break above 94,000 and move toward 96,500 – 98,000 – 101,000, with 101,000 (EMA89) being the decisive level that would open the door to a true “acceleration phase.”
This week, the market has provided enough support for Bitcoin to recover, but not enough of a catalyst for a true breakout. The Fed’s 0.25% rate cut continues to favor risk assets, yet investors remain cautious ahead of the December 16 Nonfarm Payrolls report. If labor data weakens, expectations for further rate cuts will rise — a direct tailwind for BTC. On the other hand, an overly strong report could trigger selling near dynamic resistance zones such as the EMA34.
On the news side, the crypto market is lacking major catalysts: no new ETFs, no sudden inflows, and no events on the scale of a halving. Because of that, BTC’s current recovery is driven more by technical factors than by news.
Technically, BTC has bounced from the 86,000–88,000 zone with a clear set of bullish signals: long lower wicks, improving volume, and solid absorption of selling pressure. Price is now testing the EMA34 around 93,846 — a level where BTC has been rejected multiple times since October. This is a crucial “checkpoint,” and if price closes above it on the daily chart, the trend structure will shift significantly. The next target would be the EMA89 near 101,023 — considered the final line of defense for the long-term downtrend. A breakout above EMA89 would almost confirm a new bullish cycle.
In the main scenario, I expect BTC to face mild rejection at the EMA34 and pull back to the 90,500–91,500 zone to gather liquidity before attempting another push. If buyers defend this area well, BTC could break above 94,000 and move toward 96,500 – 98,000 – 101,000, with 101,000 (EMA89) being the decisive level that would open the door to a true “acceleration phase.”
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Join my crypto group to stay updated with the market in a clear, simple, and practical way
👉🏻 t.me/+laboc_IsvmUwNzU1
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.