timwest
Short

Bitcoin /Dollar - BTCUSD -Daily - Two Scenarios from here $375

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4314 38 30
Sell signal given at $383 and fell to a low of $350 afterwards. So far, so good, but now the price isn't holding down near $350 and time is building under the current price = bullish .

If the price can stay above the yellow box for the entire day, then it will be day 1 of a 5-day rally. The "mode" of the entire decline has fallen from 410 (9-days) to 380 (now 10-days), which is a bearish event, but the stop tightens up to 380 to define the downtrend and keep it in a downtrend long term. If the price climbs over 380 for an entire session it will turn into a bull market and yield upside targets of 480 for the near term.

If the bear market is to continue - the price needs to drop immediately down under the $350 level. Every moment it spends over the $350 level is bullish and makes scenario 2 look more likely.

So, sorry for the double-scenario here, but the short signal worked very nicely initially with a $33 or 9% drop in 1 day. Now the risk is a move over today's high.

Follow this closely - and see how to trade the trend with "TIME AT MODE" by following these posts.

NOTE: Still short, and you can add to shorts with a $349 stop and a $280 target. Lower stop on shorts to breakeven at $383. Sad to give back all of those quick, nice gains.

Tim 10/11/2014 10:28PM EST
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Hello timwest is there gonna be 350 after this waves.
Reply
Hello Summer - The price needs to move away from here to stay bullish. I can create a time expiration for this idea too. A good trend will follow through right away and this one doesn't seem to be doing that. I will give it two more days.
+2 Reply
Summer timwest
thx the thing is I open a short trend around 383 should I close it?(cause price stay above 380)
+1 Reply
look at the stockmarkets worldwide right now. specially greece. buy bitcoins on sale right now cos the markets are about to crash in uppcoming weeks/months. Bitcoin will skyrocket i prommise u
-3 Reply
timwest PRO classick
I'm curious @classick, what do you back up a promise like that with? And secondly, what's the point of making a promise like that? I prefer reasoning and logic over emotion here at TradingView. Present a case for a rally. What will make people pay more for Bitcoins? I hear your emotional plea, but what is the reason people will pay up for something like Bitcoin? The prospect of income? The prospect of safety? The prospect of capital gain? I'm very curious what you think.
+6 Reply
That's way too speculative to say, you need to be moving by the market and not gut feeling.
Reply
Hey Tim just a question about your chart. Since we are in scenario 2 is it expected to retrace to 380s and retest that support before continuing up. Is that what's happening now? What's your opinion about that $414 doubletop? Thanks
Reply
timwest PRO BitcoinGuru
At this point - buying dips is the way to go as long as 380 holds. That is how I see it. The mode from the decline is a key resistance = 410
+1 Reply
thanks Tim. always looking forward for your analysis.
Reply
Tim since we dropped from 414 to 372 and came back up to 380, does that mean that the bull scenario 2 is still a possibility? (as long as we don't drop below $350 during this consolidation)
Reply
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