timwest
Short

Bitcoin /Dollar - BTCUSD -Daily - Two Scenarios from here $375

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4295 38 30
Sell signal given at $383 and fell to a low of $350 afterwards. So far, so good, but now the price isn't holding down near $350 and time is building under the current price = bullish .

If the price can stay above the yellow box for the entire day, then it will be day 1 of a 5-day rally. The "mode" of the entire decline has fallen from 410 (9-days) to 380 (now 10-days), which is a bearish event, but the stop tightens up to 380 to define the downtrend and keep it in a downtrend long term. If the price climbs over 380 for an entire session it will turn into a bull market and yield upside targets of 480 for the near term.

If the bear market is to continue - the price needs to drop immediately down under the $350 level. Every moment it spends over the $350 level is bullish and makes scenario 2 look more likely.

So, sorry for the double-scenario here, but the short signal worked very nicely initially with a $33 or 9% drop in 1 day. Now the risk is a move over today's high.

Follow this closely - and see how to trade the trend with "TIME AT MODE" by following these posts.

NOTE: Still short, and you can add to shorts with a $349 stop and a $280 target. Lower stop on shorts to breakeven at $383. Sad to give back all of those quick, nice gains.

Tim 10/11/2014 10:28PM EST
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NightWish
2 years ago
You should never be sorry for a double scenario, this just means you are open to different possibilities and are not tying yourself to one straight thought, imo that is a great strength.

I'm thinking of a second scenario as well, I was convinced we are going to see a corrective wave up to USD 479,- and then down for a last leg to USD 243,-. But looking back at 2013, this year is starting to look exactly like the 2013 movement from the 8th of april till the 7th of august (from the USD 266 high till the 50USD floor). Since we have a change of market we just took twice as long to get there, marking the USD 276 as the 2014 version of the 50 USD back in august 2013. This should mean we are 50% done with the graph and will go into a 10-11 month uptrend towards 1000-1200USD.
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Yobears NightWish
2 years ago
I would be cautious to compare the 2014 cycle to 2013... Last year bitcoin was in a raging bull market, even during the summer lull period. However, this year bitcoin is clearly in a major corrective phase and the only close comparison to 2014 bitcoin's cycle is 2011 (see MTGOX:BTCUSD chart).
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NightWish
2 years ago
To add to my comment; USD 550 already felt like the new USD 100 for months and i wouldnt be surprised if we are going to reach for USD 550 to make that the stable price for a long time to come. Jump up to 680, retrace to 480 and settle on 550. Making a support after 10-11 months on 1000USD and eventually go into another 'bubble'.
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Cryptoalerts.net NightWish
2 years ago
Dear deeltje check the weekly charts... picture is still very grim... significant changes have to occur especially to internals and momentum.
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NightWish Cryptoalerts.net
2 years ago
The same happened in 2013 when we hit 50USD. I've pointed this out before, but I'm convinced that volume matters in bitcoin, especially when you see huge volume in a potential floorprice after already having bumped down several times to get there. The 276usd had a perfect inverse head-and-shoulders formation and what do you know, we actually broke out afterwards. I admit we are still within the longterm downwards channel and need to brake 399-400 to get out, but i'm confident we will. Very slowly but steady. The picture seems grim because it took us twice as long to have this beartrend/correction and during this time we have had almost nothing but good news. But news doesn't always drive the price, sometimes graphs just need to do what they need to do despite the news ;)
+2 Reply
NightWish NightWish
2 years ago
looking back on the 2013 graph it wasnt 50usd but 65usd midterm.
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stckpkr7000 NightWish
2 years ago
I agree deeltje........ The downtrend and bear market in Bitcoin has most likely come to an end. It's been a 10 month bear market (rather long in duration considering bear markets are usually MUCH shorter than bull runs) and I think MANY are still using the old play book. I made this mistake when I traded professionally and I've seen it happen too many times to count. That's actually a good sign for us bulls as sentiment is still trying to time the next drop vs. buying the dips. I believe Bitcoin will see new highs in 2015..........
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AKWAnalytics PRO Cryptoalerts.net
2 years ago
The weekly looks pretty damn good imo...
+2 Reply
Cryptoalerts.net AKWAnalytics
2 years ago
Short term, there are two parameters that we keep an eye on (with reference to Bitstamp) :
1. On the Weekly: as long as price stays above the 5MA... and
2. On the Daily: a close above $385 (Bitstamp)...
...will increase the odds for moving towards $420-$432 (Upper 20-day Bollinger Band on the Daily).

If price reaches this point we will re-evaluate. Internals though need to improve.
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Cryptoalerts.net
2 years ago
Being prepared for alternatives is a virtue. However, you need to assess the possibilities of each outcome. We follow a 3 outcome rule. Price movements always have Long - Neutral and Short probabilities, even large moves have intermediate intervals. You can check our technical analysis for free here: www.cryptoalerts.net. Hope we can exchange more insights!
+1 Reply
Justlite PRO Cryptoalerts.net
2 years ago
what about dogecoin - Doge/CNY and Doge/BTC analysis?
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Cryptoalerts.net Justlite
2 years ago
Hi Justlite! Good question! Here is the answer form our FAQ section - http://www.cryptoalerts.net/faq/ :

"if we receive sufficient requests regarding a specific digital currency, we may consider modifying our models in order to include it in our alerts."

:)
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IvanLabrie PRO Justlite
2 years ago
Dogecoin is a pump and dump coin, I believe it bottomed out and got pumped recently...I had a chart I posted at twitter, with the inflation rate it has, it's very hard for it to go up again.
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Ice_ IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Consider it's a coin based on a meme, I hope it dies slowly.
+2 Reply
Justlite PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Ok we will see what happens with it next year. My guess is it will go up dramatically using EW analysis and fib pattern. So far it seems to be fitting the projections.

As for the fundementals it has a a lower inflation than bitcoin for the next 5 years, as secure hashrate as litecoin now (1TH/s) 100k+ followers 230 businesses that accept it atleast, dogeparty, (the counterparty of dogecoin) and new applications, sponsorships. Time will tell
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IvanLabrie PRO Justlite
2 years ago
Fundamentals mean close to squat in alt coins...look at volume and you will see clear manipulation at play. It was abandoned after the pumpers had their fun, maybe they take it for another ride, but I wouldn't bother honestly. More profitable assets to trade somewhere else. Now, if you are still holding some at a loss, then not sure, I would have cut losses already personally.
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Justlite PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
The following in china is huge so much so BtcChina are about to list it on their exchange. Houbi will follow and then OKCoin. Not bad for a meme joke coin
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IvanLabrie PRO Justlite
2 years ago
Then I'd say those guys are interested in pumping it...I'm taking no sides, nor have no emotional attachment to any coin. Btw, I did came up with a crypto myself and we have a horrific time getting it listed at exchanges, they keep implying we give them a bribe to list it, when we say there's no hidden premine, they turn the other way and run. (x-children / CHILD's the coin)
So be suspicious if they are listing new coins at major exchanges...they might have been buying them cheap before, or got bribed with a big amount.
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Justlite PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Well considering its bobby lee the brother of coblee who both seem to be stand up honest guys I would doubt it in this case besides they are actually heavily vetting the coin right now so i would say they are very professional. I am a big bitcoin and litecoin fan but I have not seen any other coin that can match those two except dogecoin but my basis is fundementals as well as technicals afterall fundementals is what started the bitcoin movement and the technicals followed. I agree with you about 99% of coins I wouldn't touch as there is just nothing backing it. I guess we will see who will last I always think it will be down to 2-3 coins that will eventually win out. Like visa, MasterCard, American Express
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Justlite
2 years ago
Yep, it's probably the case. Only problem with those alts is the mining, same as with BTC. If they can come up with solutions to the lack of demand, and the inflation they might stick around. Right now the altcoin markets are dry, even BTC's total volume and cap is pretty small, and considering the amount of people who are into this movement, it still has plenty of room to expand. Not sure how much time though, there are other players who might be ahead of the game (thinking of Invictus innovations' projects, like BTS-X and the different DACs). The DAC concept is pretty interesting.
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Justlite PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
not sure about BTSX i don't think the POSV model they have is all that great as it only incentivises hoarding and elitism. thats not the path i want digital currencies to go down. also if its that good then why aren't the core debs jumping at this algo after 2 months of evaluating. DAC I've not heard about so i will check up on that. i think any new coin has to be a game changer off the bat otherwise it won't make it. Ether with its press and pre-sale has a good chance but its funny that it adopts the inflationary model that dogecoin has almost exactly. I believe having programmed 2-5% annual inflation infinatly is a good thing and shouldn't be discarded as it incentivises spending and doesn't lead to extreme devaluation
+1 Reply
Justlite PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I mean bitcoin core devs..
+1 Reply
June
2 years ago
think... well, may be the price goes up again, not making another bottom which is different from my previous opinion..... It appears that the price has broken the 20MA in a daily chart. Unless it returns to below 20MA, i believe today can be a good opportunity to purchase.
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Terminator1
2 years ago
Your Awesome Tim. You just are.
+2 Reply
stckpkr7000
2 years ago
Tim, I agree with the comment about your ability to flip flop. That's the sign of a true pro and sharing your charts takes a lot of courage as you know many like to troll or call people out. Many fall in love with a name or a direction. Thank you for your honest and professional work.
+1 Reply
timwest PRO stckpkr7000
2 years ago
Thanks stckpkr7000. Very nice of you to say. Just for the record, I have made bullish forecasts on BTCUSD before that have panned out well. I'm def all about the chart. If anything, I was excited about BTCUSD and was recommending shorting all the banks and credit card companies earlier this summer once the technicals were weakening in the group. Either way, thank you for your kind words.
+2 Reply
stckpkr7000 timwest
2 years ago
I have no doubt you've made bullish calls on BTC in the past. You read the charts and let the indicators do the talking. I have a trading journal at THESLOPEOFHOPE and I too made bearish calls on MA, AXP, and V a few months ago. I think they still have more drop after some kind of bounce to erase some of the short term oversold conditions. Thanks for your work!
+2 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
Hey Tim just a question about your chart. Since we are in scenario 2 is it expected to retrace to 380s and retest that support before continuing up. Is that what's happening now? What's your opinion about that $414 doubletop? Thanks
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timwest PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
At this point - buying dips is the way to go as long as 380 holds. That is how I see it. The mode from the decline is a key resistance = 410
+1 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS timwest
2 years ago
thanks Tim. always looking forward for your analysis.
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BuyBitcoin.WS timwest
2 years ago
Tim since we dropped from 414 to 372 and came back up to 380, does that mean that the bull scenario 2 is still a possibility? (as long as we don't drop below $350 during this consolidation)
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timwest PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
I posted another chart today, perhaps only in the Bitcoin Chatroom, and although a deeper correction than expected, it hasn't violated the uptrend. If it stays over the 368 level, it should be fine . If it goes lower than 368, then it will need more time to set up for a rally so wait on the sidelines for it to set up. 5-days isn't a long consolidation to set up a big rally, but 10-13 is a more normal amount of time.
+1 Reply
classick
2 years ago
look at the stockmarkets worldwide right now. specially greece. buy bitcoins on sale right now cos the markets are about to crash in uppcoming weeks/months. Bitcoin will skyrocket i prommise u
-3 Reply
timwest PRO classick
2 years ago
I'm curious @classick, what do you back up a promise like that with? And secondly, what's the point of making a promise like that? I prefer reasoning and logic over emotion here at TradingView. Present a case for a rally. What will make people pay more for Bitcoins? I hear your emotional plea, but what is the reason people will pay up for something like Bitcoin? The prospect of income? The prospect of safety? The prospect of capital gain? I'm very curious what you think.
+6 Reply
LastBattle classick
2 years ago
That's way too speculative to say, you need to be moving by the market and not gut feeling.
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Summer
2 years ago
Hello timwest is there gonna be 350 after this waves.
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timwest PRO Summer
2 years ago
Hello Summer - The price needs to move away from here to stay bullish. I can create a time expiration for this idea too. A good trend will follow through right away and this one doesn't seem to be doing that. I will give it two more days.
+2 Reply
Summer timwest
2 years ago
thx the thing is I open a short trend around 383 should I close it?(cause price stay above 380)
+1 Reply
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