Sell signal given at $383 and fell to a low of $350 afterwards. So far, so good, but now the price isn't holding down near $350 and time is building under the current price = bullish.
If the price can stay above the yellow box for the entire day, then it will be day 1 of a 5-day rally. The "mode" of the entire decline has fallen from 410 (9-days) to 380 (now 10-days), which is a bearish event, but the stop tightens up to 380 to define the downtrend and keep it in a downtrend long term. If the price climbs over 380 for an entire session it will turn into a bull market and yield upside targets of 480 for the near term.
If the bear market is to continue - the price needs to drop immediately down under the $350 level. Every moment it spends over the $350 level is bullish and makes scenario 2 look more likely.
So, sorry for the double-scenario here, but the short signal worked very nicely initially with a $33 or 9% drop in 1 day. Now the risk is a move over today's high.
Follow this closely - and see how to trade the trend with "TIME AT MODE" by following these posts.
NOTE: Still short, and you can add to shorts with a $349 stop and a $280 target. Lower stop on shorts to breakeven at $383. Sad to give back all of those quick, nice gains.
Tim 10/11/2014 10:28PM EST
Comments
Terminator1
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Your Awesome Tim. You just are.
stckpkr7000
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Tim, I agree with the comment about your ability to flip flop. That's the sign of a true pro and sharing your charts takes a lot of courage as you know many like to troll or call people out. Many fall in love with a name or a direction. Thank you for your honest and professional work.
timwest
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Thanks stckpkr7000. Very nice of you to say. Just for the record, I have made bullish forecasts on BTCUSD before that have panned out well. I'm def all about the chart. If anything, I was excited about BTCUSD and was recommending shorting all the banks and credit card companies earlier this summer once the technicals were weakening in the group. Either way, thank you for your kind words.
stckpkr7000
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I have no doubt you've made bullish calls on BTC in the past. You read the charts and let the indicators do the talking. I have a trading journal at THESLOPEOFHOPE and I too made bearish calls on MA, AXP, and V a few months ago. I think they still have more drop after some kind of bounce to erase some of the short term oversold conditions. Thanks for your work!
Cryptoalerts.net
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Being prepared for alternatives is a virtue. However, you need to assess the possibilities of each outcome. We follow a 3 outcome rule. Price movements always have Long - Neutral and Short probabilities, even large moves have intermediate intervals. You can check our technical analysis for free here: cryptoalerts.net. Hope we can exchange more insights!
Hassler3
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what about dogecoin - Doge/CNY and Doge/BTC analysis?
Cryptoalerts.net
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Hi Justlite! Good question! Here is the answer form our FAQ section - cryptoalerts.net/faq/ :
"if we receive sufficient requests regarding a specific digital currency, we may consider modifying our models in order to include it in our alerts."
:)
IvanLabrie
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Dogecoin is a pump and dump coin, I believe it bottomed out and got pumped recently...I had a chart I posted at twitter, with the inflation rate it has, it's very hard for it to go up again.
Ice_
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Consider it's a coin based on a meme, I hope it dies slowly.
Hassler3
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Ok we will see what happens with it next year. My guess is it will go up dramatically using EW analysis and fib pattern. So far it seems to be fitting the projections.
As for the fundementals it has a a lower inflation than bitcoin for the next 5 years, as secure hashrate as litecoin now (1TH/s) 100k+ followers 230 businesses that accept it atleast, dogeparty, (the counterparty of dogecoin) and new applications, sponsorships. Time will tell