Bitcoin Daily Update (day 289)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “However I would stay very far away from longing this area for one simple reason: it is resistance.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 (starting to scale out) | Short USDT:USD from $0.99

Patterns: Broke trendline | Phase 7 of hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $3,675 | Probably some support around $3,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Low high and lower low. Testing 33 MA for support.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0747%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Bullish cross with 9 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Turning up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish, should be strong resistance
Overall trend: Short is bullish | Medium - long is bearish
Volume: Decreasing as price moves up
Candlestick analysis: Close above the trendline
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen at $3,767
TD’ Sequential: Today closed g2 > g1 (I said I would stay away and I remain confident in that)
Visible Range: From yesterday’s post: “I’m seeing a gap in volume from $3,400 - $3,700 that is begging to get filled.” Now that is filled I see a lot of resistance
Price action: 24h: +4.7% | 2w: -7.3% | 1m: -35.2%
Bollinger Bands: Close above the MA. Retest of the top band at $4,151 is to be expected.
Trendline: Busted
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bullish
Parabolic SAR: So far it is holding strong as resistance at $3,740
RSI: Didn’t take long (one or two days) to go from 30 to 45. Expecting resistance at 50.
Stochastic: Bullish with some room to go
Last Day Rule: Triggered with $3,577 breakthrough

Summary: There is a long of resistance from $3,750 - $4,150. Longing anything in this area makes no sense as far as i am concerned. The stop would need to be below $3,100 (based on the Bill Williams Fractal) and there is no way that a realistic target would give that entry a favorable risk:reward.

Buy dips in bull markets, sell bounces in bear markets

Instead of thinking about a long or feeling like you already missed out on one, start focusing on where to re enter shorts. It is certainly too early for that but it is never too early to prepare and to understand where the heavy resistance waits.

I am watching the daily parabolic SAR, 33 MA, horizontal resistance from prior support at $3,750 as well as the Kijun-Sen and the top of the Bollinger band at $4,151. If we get a nice reversal candle and / or a close below the 4 day MA in that area then I will be prepared to scale back into short positions.